Update shared on04 Sep 2025
Fair value Decreased 0.60%Consensus analyst price targets for Builders FirstSource remain unchanged at $141.16 as analysts cite weaker housing starts, margin pressure, and cautious earnings outlooks for 2025–26, despite long-term optimism around U.S. housing under-builds and M&A potential.
Analyst Commentary
- Bearish analysts are forecasting a “lower for longer” trough driven by reduced FY25 and FY26 adjusted EBITDA outlooks, citing a more cautious earnings reset.
- Weaker than expected single-family housing starts are weighing on near-term revenue and EBITDA estimates, pushing multiple analysts to lower price targets.
- Increased competitive intensity within the industry is believed to be pressuring margins and topline growth, raising concerns about Builders FirstSource’s ability to defend market share.
- Margin normalization trends and softer oriented strand board pricing further cloud near-term profit visibility.
- Despite near-term concerns, some bullish analysts highlight the company’s long-term positioning to benefit from U.S. housing under-build and potential upside from bolt-on M&A activity.
What's in the News
- Oppenheimer lowered its price target on Builders FirstSource to $155 from $165, citing a weaker backdrop for single-family starts, margin normalization, and a tough competitive environment, but maintains an Outperform rating and notes a favorable long-term outlook (Periodical).
- The company announced 2025 net sales guidance in the range of $14.8 billion to $15.6 billion (Key Developments).
- Builders FirstSource completed a repurchase of 6.35 million shares (5.54% of shares outstanding) for $908 million under its current buyback program (Key Developments).
- The company is focused on maintaining a strong balance sheet, continuing disciplined capital deployment, prioritizing organic and inorganic growth through technology upgrades (ERP transition) and acquisitions, though acknowledges a softer M&A environment (Key Developments).
- Builders FirstSource was dropped from several major Russell growth indexes, including the Russell 1000, 3000, and Midcap Growth indexes (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Builders FirstSource
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, at $141.16.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Builders FirstSource remained effectively unchanged, at 0.9% per annum.
- The Discount Rate for Builders FirstSource remained effectively unchanged, at 8.93%.
Disclaimer
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