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APG: Long Term Margin Upside And Softer Revenues Will Keep Shares Rangebound

APG: Rising Net Margins And Revenue Guidance Will Support Outperformance In 2025

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APG
AnalystConsensusTarget
Not Invested
Published 13 May 2025

Update shared on 13 Dec 2025

Fair value Increased 1.42%
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AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value
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Analysts have nudged their price target on APi Group slightly higher to approximately $42.90 per share from about $42.30. This reflects updated assumptions of modestly higher future valuation multiples and significantly improved long term profitability, despite more conservative revenue growth expectations.

What's in the News

  • APi Group issued 2025 guidance calling for net revenues at or above the midpoint of its $7.875 billion range, signaling confidence in demand and execution (company guidance).
  • The company raised its full year 2025 net revenue outlook to a range of $7.825 billion to $7.925 billion, up from prior guidance of $7.650 billion to $7.850 billion (company guidance).
  • APi Group reported no share repurchases between July 1 and September 30, 2025, leaving its previously announced buyback authorization unused in the latest quarter (company disclosure).

Valuation Changes

  • Fair Value: Raised slightly to approximately $42.90 per share from about $42.30, reflecting a modest uplift in intrinsic value estimates.
  • Discount Rate: Edged up marginally to roughly 8.95 percent from about 8.94 percent, indicating a minimal change in the assumed cost of capital.
  • Revenue Growth: Reduced sharply from an expected increase of about 6.52 percent to a projected decline of roughly 46.61 percent, signaling a substantially more conservative top line outlook.
  • Net Profit Margin: Increased significantly from around 8.84 percent to approximately 70.22 percent, implying a major reassessment of long term profitability and operating leverage.
  • Future P/E: Ticked up slightly to about 28.1 times from roughly 27.7 times, indicating a small expansion in the assumed forward earnings multiple.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.