Update shared on 04 Dec 2025
Fair value Decreased 0.058%Analysts have nudged their price target on AECOM slightly lower, trimming fair value by approximately $0.08 per share as they factor in a modestly higher perceived risk profile and a slightly softer margin outlook, partly offset by expectations for a richer future earnings multiple.
What's in the News
- AECOM completed a major share repurchase tranche, buying back about 1.97 million shares, or 1.49% of outstanding stock, in the quarter ended September 30, 2025. This brought total repurchases under its long running program to 45.27 million shares, or 30.65% of shares, for $2.83 billion (company filing).
- The company outlined dividend growth targets for fiscal years 2026 to 2029, aiming for double digit annual per share dividend increases. This includes a recently announced 19% hike effective with the November 18, 2025 declaration (company guidance).
- AECOM separately announced a 19% increase in its quarterly dividend to $0.31 per share, with the higher payout to be reflected in the January 23, 2026 distribution to shareholders of record on January 7, 2026 (company announcement).
- The company initiated a review of strategic alternatives for its Construction Management business, including a potential sale, as it seeks to focus capital and management attention on higher growth, higher return areas such as AI enabled solutions and its Advisory segment (company announcement).
- AECOM provided fiscal 2026 guidance, forecasting net income from continuing operations in the range of $599 million to $710 million and earnings per share of $4.01 to $4.84, setting expectations for medium term profit growth (company guidance).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value: edged down slightly from $143.42 to $143.33 per share, reflecting a negligible reduction in estimated intrinsic value.
- Discount Rate: risen modestly from 8.91% to 9.12%, indicating a slightly higher required return and perceived risk profile.
- Revenue Growth: essentially unchanged at approximately negative 8.14%, suggesting no material revision to top line growth expectations.
- Net Profit Margin: reduced from about 7.75% to 7.25%, signaling a modestly softer margin outlook in the updated model.
- Future P/E: increased from roughly 25.0x to 26.5x, pointing to a somewhat richer assumed valuation multiple on forward earnings.
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