Update shared on 29 Nov 2025
Fair value Increased 1.56%Sunrun's analyst price targets have notably increased, with the fair value estimate rising from $22.39 to $22.74 per share. Analysts cite regulatory tailwinds and the company's advantageous position amid evolving clean energy incentives.
Analyst Commentary
Recent updates from Street research show that sentiment on Sunrun has shifted positively, with several bullish analysts revising their outlooks upward and identifying the company as a leading beneficiary in the evolving landscape of residential solar and clean energy incentives.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts have raised Sunrun's price targets significantly, with several setting new expectations in the mid to high $20 range as a result of favorable regulatory tailwinds and healthy guidance for upcoming quarters.
- There is broad agreement that Sunrun is positioned to benefit from the expiration of homeowner-focused tax credits, as the allowance of Third-Party Ownership systems increases the company’s addressable market and resiliency.
- The company is expected to outperform future cash flow targets and demonstrate improved leverage and cash generation, potentially enabling capital returns such as share repurchases or dividends by 2026.
- Analysts anticipate Sunrun will play a growing role in the residential solar segment amid rising electricity rates and ongoing capacity growth in response to increased national demand.
Bearish Takeaways
- Cautions remain around the mixed performance within the residential solar market, with some skepticism regarding execution and visibility, particularly compared to more diversified, utility-scale clean energy players.
- Legislative and regulatory developments can introduce uncertainty, as demonstrated by recent state policy changes influencing forecasted growth trajectories and rate structures.
- Some bearish analysts emphasize the importance of maintaining strong cash flow and cost discipline given the company's evolving business mix and capital needs.
What's in the News
- BMO Capital upgraded Sunrun to Market Perform from Underperform and raised its price target to $19. The firm cited the company's increased willingness to consider share repurchases or dividends in 2026 (BMO Capital).
- The White House is reportedly considering canceling an additional $12 billion in funding for clean energy projects. This move could impact public companies across the sector, including Sunrun (Semafor).
- Residential batteries from Sunrun and Tesla have been highlighted as potential contributors to powering data centers. This reflects new applications and market opportunities for Sunrun's technology (The Information).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly from $22.39 to $22.74 per share.
- Discount Rate remains unchanged at 12.5%.
- Revenue Growth projection increased from 8.4% to 10.3%.
- Net Profit Margin forecast has fallen significantly, moving from 20.3% to 14.8%.
- Future P/E ratio estimate has climbed from 13.6x to 17.5x.
Disclaimer
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