MYRG: Transmission Upswing And Data Centers Will Drive Yet Constrained Upside

Analysts have modestly raised their price target for MYR Group, with updates clustering in the low to mid $200s. They are balancing stronger transmission and distribution and data center demand against lingering caution on solar project risk and valuation.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research updates underscore a divided but constructive view on MYR Group, with bullish analysts emphasizing structural growth drivers and bearish analysts focused on valuation discipline and execution risk.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts highlight that accelerating transmission and distribution activity and equipment demand in Q3 exceeded expectations, supporting a multi year growth runway.
• Improvement in bidding activity and awards is viewed as evidence that MYR Group is well positioned to capture incremental share in T&D related projects and data center build outs.
• Price target increases into the low to mid $200s are framed as reflecting stronger growth visibility rather than multiple expansion alone. This is described as suggesting confidence in earnings power.
• Survey work indicating a favorable setup heading into earnings season is seen as a sign that near term execution and backlog conversion should support the higher valuation.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts argue that the share price already discounts much of the recovery from past project execution issues, leaving limited upside at current valuation levels.
• Solar project exposure remains a key overhang, with last year’s challenges reinforcing concerns that margin volatility could resurface if complex projects underperform.
• Neutral ratings paired with higher price targets signal that some see risk reward as balanced, with strong thematic growth offset by execution and project mix risk.
• The decision to move to a more neutral sector stance, even without cutting estimates, reflects caution that multiple compression could occur if growth expectations moderate.

What's in the News

• MYR Group completed a share repurchase of 639,207 shares, or about 3.96% of shares outstanding, for a total of $75 million under the buyback program announced on February 26, 2025 (Key Developments).
• Between July 1, 2025 and July 30, 2025, the company did not repurchase any additional shares under the February 26, 2025 buyback authorization, which signals that the program has effectively run its course (Key Developments).
• Under a separate repurchase authorization announced on July 30, 2025, MYR Group reported no share buybacks between July 30, 2025 and September 30, 2025, which implies continued balance sheet flexibility despite available capacity (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value Estimate remains unchanged at approximately $240.60 per share, indicating no shift in the intrinsic value assessment.
• The Discount Rate has fallen slightly from about 8.51% to 8.48%, reflecting a modest easing in the assumed cost of capital.
• Revenue Growth is effectively unchanged at roughly 8.66% per year, suggesting stable expectations for top line expansion.
• Net Profit Margin is essentially flat at about 3.67%, indicating no material change in long term profitability assumptions.
• The Future P/E has edged down marginally from around 24.18x to 24.16x, implying a slightly lower valuation multiple on projected earnings.