Update shared on 30 Nov 2025
Fair value Increased 0.81%Analysts have nudged up their fair value estimate for Intuitive Machines to $15.50 from $15.38. This change reflects an improved revenue growth outlook and heightened opportunities resulting from recent industry consolidation and strategic acquisitions.
Analyst Commentary
Analyst sentiment around Intuitive Machines remains divided, with both optimism regarding strategic advancements and caution around execution risks and industry dynamics. Below are the key points reflecting current views:
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts highlight the potential for Intuitive Machines to benefit from increased consolidation in the space industry. They suggest the company's strategic direction positions it well for long-term gains.
- The recent acquisition of Lanteris Space System is seen as a positive step to broaden the company's capabilities and enhance its offerings in both spacecraft and systems integration.
- Expanded scale through acquisitions is expected to improve the company's ability to compete for significant national defense, civil, and commercial contracts. This may support a more robust revenue growth trajectory.
- Rising price targets reflect a view that improved integration of recent acquisitions could unlock further value and accelerate growth prospects.
- Bearish analysts caution that despite strategic moves, the stock still carries an Underperform rating due to increased competition and uncertainty around actual integration success.
- Recent financial results were below consensus, attributed in part to external factors such as government shutdowns. This raises shorter-term concerns about execution and revenue stability.
- There is skepticism regarding the company’s ability to translate expanded scale into immediate contract wins. Analysts are watching for evidence of successful performance in upcoming periods.
- Questions remain over how quickly Intuitive Machines can deliver on the expected synergies from new acquisitions and fully realize benefits for shareholders.
What's in the News
- Secured an $8.2 million contract extension from the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory’s Space Vehicles Directorate to advance next-generation nuclear power systems for spacecraft and lunar infrastructure (Key Developments)
- Accelerating development of compact nuclear power conversion technology, designed to overcome solar power limitations and enable longer-duration missions on the Moon and in deep space (Key Developments)
- Stirling Technology spAce Research experimenT (START) is set to demonstrate Stirling power conversion on the ISS National Laboratory, aiming to validate the technology for commercial and national security space missions (Key Developments)
- Ongoing work with the Department of Energy and NASA’s Fission Surface Power project to explore high-powered nuclear fission-based systems for space applications (Key Developments)
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly, increasing from $15.38 to $15.50 per share.
- Discount Rate has declined marginally, moving from 7.99% to 7.95%.
- Revenue Growth Outlook has increased significantly, rising from 34.7% to 73.6%.
- Net Profit Margin has fallen considerably, dropping from 8.4% to 4.5%.
- Future P/E Ratio has decreased, moving from 62.7x to 48.9x.
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.