Update shared on 01 Nov 2025
Analysts have slightly revised their price targets for Intuitive Machines, with minor adjustments reflecting both softer guidance because of government contract delays and improved financial flexibility following a successful convertible note offering.
Analyst Commentary
Analyst coverage of Intuitive Machines reflects a mix of optimism around the company’s recent financial maneuvers as well as concerns regarding execution risks and revenue predictability.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts note that the oversubscribed $300 million convertible note offering demonstrates continued investor appetite for space and defense-related opportunities, showcasing the company’s financial flexibility.
- Securing a low 2.5% coupon rate on the debt is described as an opportunistic move that should help support near-term operations and strategic investments.
- Despite downward price target revisions, some analysts maintain Buy ratings and highlight the long-term growth prospects associated with Intuitive Machines' portfolio of lunar and satellite missions.
- Bearish analysts point to government contracting delays, which have caused softer guidance for the second half of 2025 and pushed major mission timelines, including the IM-3 lander, further into the future.
- There are concerns about charges related to ongoing internal investments, particularly in the development of the Near Space Network Systems satellites, impacting short-term financial performance.
- Risks to revenue visibility remain, with some analysts characterizing the company’s focus on civil space contracts as a less attractive orientation given current industry dynamics and fiscal bottlenecks.
What's in the News
- Secured an $8.2 million contract extension from the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory to advance compact nuclear power systems for spacecraft and lunar infrastructure, accelerating readiness for space-based missions (Client Announcements).
- Preparing to demonstrate Stirling-based nuclear power conversion technology in orbit. The company aims to move from prototype to operational status through a flight experiment aboard the International Space Station (Client Announcements).
- Actively seeking both tuck-in and transformative merger and acquisition opportunities, focusing on expanding data services and national security space offerings (Seeking Acquisitions/Investments).
- Issued full-year 2025 guidance, projecting revenue near the low end of previous outlook with potential for improvement based on upcoming opportunities (Corporate Guidance: New or Confirmed).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate remains stable at $15.43 per share, with no change from the previous assessment.
- Discount Rate has edged down fractionally to 7.70%, reflecting a marginal decrease in perceived risk.
- Revenue Growth Projection holds steady at 30.5% year-over-year, with no material revision in outlook.
- Net Profit Margin stays unchanged at 8.19%, indicating consistent expectations for future profitability.
- Future Price/Earnings (P/E) Ratio is nearly flat at 67.43x, showing minimal adjustment in market valuation assumptions.
Disclaimer
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