Update shared on08 Sep 2025
Fair value Decreased 1.24%Analyst price targets for Intuitive Machines edged slightly lower to $14.38 as concerns over delayed mission launches and weaker Q2 results outweighed optimism from successful convertible debt issuance and improved financial flexibility.
Analyst Commentary
- Bearish analysts cite lower Q2 results due to charges from internal investment in Near Space Network Systems and delay of the IM-3 lander mission launch to 2H 2026, increasing concerns around revenue visibility and a less attractive civil space orientation.
- Bullish analysts highlight the successful upsized $300M senior convertible note offering, viewing the oversubscription as a sign of strong investor interest in the space and defense sector.
- The company secured a favorable 2.5% coupon rate on its convertible debt, seen as an opportunistic move to enhance financial flexibility amid a receptive convert market.
- Some analysts lowered price targets due to missed bottom-line results and softer guidance for the 2H25, primarily attributed to fiscal bottlenecks and ongoing government contracting delays, which are typical during U.S. presidential transition years.
- Overall, while contracting delays and delayed mission timelines are pressuring near-term financials, ongoing capital market interest and strengthened financial position are viewed as medium-term positives by bullish analysts.
What's in the News
- Intuitive Machines remains aggressive in pursuing strategic M&A, particularly in data services and national security space markets, while also evaluating internal growth investments.
- Full-year 2025 revenue is forecasted near the low end of prior guidance, with potential upside supporting revenues at the previous mid-point of $275 million.
- Secured a $9.8 million Phase Two government contract to advance the Orbital Transfer Vehicle to Critical Design Review, expanding the government portfolio and diversifying beyond NASA customers.
- Intuitive Machines was dropped from multiple Russell indexes, including Russell 3000E, Microcap, and related Value and Growth benchmarks.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Intuitive Machines
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from $14.56 to $14.38.
- The Future P/E for Intuitive Machines has significantly fallen from 96.08x to 62.72x.
- The Discount Rate for Intuitive Machines remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 7.61% to 7.64%.
Disclaimer
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