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HLMN: Revenue Outlook And Margins Will Support Measured Future Share Performance

Falling In-Store Sales And Tariff Pressures Will Drag Margins

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HLMN
AnalystLowTarget
Not Invested
Published 09 May 2025

Update shared on 14 Dec 2025

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AnalystLowTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
-15.2%
7D
4.0%

Analysts have nudged their price target on Hillman Solutions modestly higher to reflect slightly faster expected revenue growth, improved profit margin assumptions, and a lower projected future P/E multiple, leaving their estimate of fair value at approximately $10.00 per share.

What's in the News

  • Company reiterated its 2025 full year net sales guidance, maintaining the expected range at $1.535 billion to $1.575 billion, reflecting its stated confidence in its current growth outlook (Key Developments)
  • Hillman completed a share repurchase tranche between July 31, 2025 and September 27, 2025, buying back 325,584 shares, or about 0.16% of shares outstanding, for $3.16 million under its August 5, 2025 buyback authorization (Key Developments)

Valuation Changes

  • Fair Value: Unchanged at approximately $10.00 per share, indicating no revision to the analyst estimate of intrinsic value.
  • Discount Rate: Increased modestly from about 8.93 percent to 9.44 percent, reflecting a slightly higher required return in the valuation model.
  • Revenue Growth: Risen slightly from roughly 5.57 percent to 5.88 percent, implying a modestly more optimistic top line outlook.
  • Net Profit Margin: Increased meaningfully from about 3.92 percent to 4.89 percent, signaling higher expected profitability on future sales.
  • Future P/E: Lowered significantly from approximately 37.4x to 29.0x, suggesting a more conservative multiple applied to projected earnings.

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