Update shared on 29 Nov 2025
KeyCorp's analyst price target experienced a slight decrease to $21 from $22, as analysts cite stronger capital levels and ongoing revenue momentum. This is balanced against a market that already reflects improved guidance.
Analyst Commentary
Recent Street research reveals a range of perspectives on KeyCorp, with analyst reports reflecting both optimism about the bank's operational momentum and some caution around valuation and consensus expectations.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts have highlighted KeyCorp's strong third-quarter performance and the management team's decision to raise full-year revenue guidance. This is viewed as a sign of continued earnings momentum.
- KeyCorp's capital levels are noted to be at the top end compared to its peers, which contributes to a solid foundation for credit quality and risk management.
- Net interest margin expansion and growth in fee income are expected to drive earnings in 2025 and 2026. Models now reflect modest upward revisions for both years.
- Some see the potential for further growth if capital markets improve and deregulation trends continue to favor regional banks.
- Bearish analysts point out that recent revenue guidance upgrades were already anticipated by the market. This has limited the positive impact on share valuation.
- The company’s strong Q3 numbers are seen as insufficient to surprise investors, given that consensus estimates had previously factored in improved results.
- After a notable rally in share prices, there is increased selectivity among analysts. Some are cautioning against overestimating the upside from recent estimate revisions.
What's in the News
- From July 1, 2025 to September 30, 2025, KeyCorp repurchased zero shares under its recently announced buyback program. This resulted in no capital returned through repurchases during this period (Key Developments).
- For the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, KeyCorp reported net loan charge-offs totaling $114 million, or 0.42% of average total loans. This was down from $154 million, or 0.58%, in the same quarter of 2024 (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate remained stable at $21.51, reflecting minimal adjustment from prior assessments.
- Discount Rate increased slightly from 7.26% to 7.26%, reflecting a modest shift in perceived risk for future cash flows.
- Revenue Growth projections were unchanged at 16.76%, indicating ongoing confidence in forward-looking topline performance.
- Net Profit Margin edged down slightly from 28.90% to 28.89%, representing a negligible decrease in expected profitability.
- Future P/E ratio declined from 13.01x to 10.28x, suggesting an improved earnings outlook relative to KeyCorp’s market valuation.
Disclaimer
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