Update shared on 15 Nov 2025
Fair value Increased 0.22%KeyCorp's analyst price target saw a modest reduction from $22 to $21. Analysts cite strong revenue guidance, robust capital levels, and continued credit quality as key supporting factors for the updated outlook, reflecting cautious optimism.
Analyst Commentary
Recent Street research reveals a mix of optimism and caution regarding KeyCorp's near-term prospects. Analysts are broadly constructive on the company's capital strength and revenue outlook, though some maintain a measured stance due to valuation and industry dynamics.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts continue to raise KeyCorp's price targets, citing strong capital ratios that compare favorably to peer institutions.
- Management guidance suggests robust revenue growth, with expectations that positive momentum could continue into 2026.
- Several researchers have highlighted the company's credit quality, pointing to consistent asset quality performance as a support for valuation.
- Revisions to earnings and net interest income estimates reflect improving net interest margins and ongoing success in investment banking.
Bearish Takeaways
- Some analysts emphasize that recent positive guidance was largely anticipated by the market, which limits the upside surprise and moderates target price adjustments.
- There is a consensus that recent bank-sector rallies have outpaced estimate revisions. This prompts caution around expectations for further rapid share appreciation.
- While revenue and fee growth remain on track, expectations for expense increases have slightly ticked up. This leads to conservative outlooks for margin expansion.
What's in the News
- From July 1, 2025 to September 30, 2025, KeyCorp completed a buyback tranche with no shares repurchased. This reflects 0% of the announced program for $0 million. (Buyback Tranche Update)
- For the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, KeyCorp reported net loan charge-offs totaling $114 million, or 0.42% of average total loans. This is down from $154 million, or 0.58%, in the same quarter of 2024. (Impairments/Write Offs)
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value: increased slightly from $21.46 to $21.51, marking a modest rise.
- Discount Rate: increased from 7.14% to 7.26%, reflecting updated risk assessments.
- Revenue Growth: remained essentially unchanged at 16.76%, indicating continued steady growth expectations.
- Net Profit Margin: declined marginally from 29.09% to 28.90%, indicating a slight compression in projected profitability.
- Future P/E: decreased marginally from 13.10x to 13.01x, indicating a slightly reduced valuation multiple based on earnings.
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.