Update shared on 15 Nov 2025
Fair value Increased 0.11%Analysts have raised their price target for UMB Financial from $130 to $144, citing slightly improved profit and revenue growth projections as well as renewed momentum in legacy operations.
Analyst Commentary
Recent research notes on UMB Financial reflect both optimism and caution in light of the price target increase and updated growth projections.
Bullish Takeaways- Analysts have raised their operating EPS outlook for 2026, forecasting an increase from $11.40 to $11.75. This reflects stronger profit expectations.
- Improved momentum in legacy UMB operations is viewed as a core driver that supports the company's valuation and future growth prospects.
- The transition of Heartland from a phase of contraction to renewed growth adds incremental confidence in the company’s business mix and revenue potential.
- Maintaining a Buy rating signals broad-based faith in execution and successful navigation of industry headwinds.
- While growth projections have improved, the upward revision remains modest. This suggests that significant upside may still be limited by competitive pressures or macroeconomic challenges.
- Dependence on revitalizing legacy operations introduces risks if momentum slows or reverses.
- Potential integration or performance challenges related to Heartland’s transition from shrinking to growing could temper earnings traction.
What's in the News
- The dividend on common stock increased to $0.43 per share and will be payable on January 2, 2026 (company announcement).
- Net charge offs for the third quarter of 2025 rose to $18.4 million, compared with $8.5 million in the prior year period (company report).
- No share buybacks were completed for the period from July 1 to September 30, 2025, under the announced repurchase plan (company filing).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate has inched up, rising from $137.54 to $137.69 per share.
- Discount Rate increased moderately, moving from 6.84% to 6.96%.
- Revenue Growth projection edged higher, up from 14.00% to 14.10%.
- Net Profit Margin estimate saw a slight improvement, increasing from 35.57% to 35.64%.
- Future P/E Ratio remains essentially unchanged, ticking down marginally from 13.35x to 13.35x.
Disclaimer
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