Update shared on 01 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 1.32%Analysts have modestly lowered their price target for UMB Financial by about $2 to $137.54. They cite improved profit margins but reduced revenue growth expectations based on updated earnings outlooks and ongoing momentum in core business segments.
Analyst Commentary
Analyst sentiment around UMB Financial remains generally positive, with several factors supporting the company’s valuation and earnings trajectory. However, some remaining challenges continue to warrant attention as part of the investment outlook.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts have increased price targets in light of improved operating earnings projections for the coming years.
- Modest but steady growth in core legacy business lines is expected to provide a stable base for future margin expansion.
- The transition of Heartland from contraction to growth is anticipated to support overall earnings acceleration into 2026.
- Profitability improvements, reflected in raised 2026 operating EPS forecasts, bolster confidence in management’s execution.
- Some analysts remain cautious as overall revenue growth expectations have been tempered, potentially limiting upside despite earnings gains.
- The sustainability of profit margin improvement is still viewed as uncertain in a challenging interest rate environment.
- Ongoing competitive pressures in key markets could pose headwinds to further share price appreciation.
What's in the News
- Net charge offs for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, increased to $18,383,000, up from $8,454,000 a year ago (Key Developments).
- The board of directors declared a dividend of $0.43 per share on common stock. The dividend is payable January 2, 2026, to shareholders of record as of December 10, 2025 (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target has fallen modestly from $139.38 to $137.54.
- Discount Rate has decreased slightly, moving from 6.85% to 6.84%.
- Revenue Growth expectations have declined significantly, dropping from 19.30% to 14.00%.
- Net Profit Margin has risen slightly from 35.15% to 35.57%.
- Future P/E ratio has edged lower, moving from 13.59x to 13.35x.
Disclaimer
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