New Models Launching In 2025 Will Advance Electrification And Sustainability Goals

Ferrari’s analyst fair value estimate was revised lower to $477.93 from $530.84, as analysts cited more cautious growth forecasts and updated peer comparisons for the reduced price targets.

Analyst Commentary

Recent analyst commentary reflects a dynamic outlook for Ferrari, with both bullish and bearish perspectives driving adjustments to price targets and recommendations. Analysts are closely monitoring the company's execution on its long-term plans, new model launches, and evolving industry dynamics.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts point to Ferrari’s continued brand strength and resilient pricing power, seeing upside potential for margins and returns on capital, particularly as the company unveils new models and advances its electrification strategy.
• Several analysts highlighted Ferrari’s ambitious mid-term targets, including higher EBIT margins and substantial share buybacks, as evidence of management’s commitment to shareholder value.
• Recent price target increases were underpinned by confidence in the company meeting or exceeding 2026 financial estimates, as well as a favorable product mix driving revenue growth.
• The upcoming capital markets day and related strategic updates are anticipated to serve as catalysts for further share price appreciation, especially with expected announcements around EV initiatives and increased dividend pay-out ratios.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts trimmed price targets due to more conservative growth forecasts and closer peer benchmarking, citing that some market optimism may already be reflected in Ferrari’s valuation.
• Some are cautious that the new five-year plan, while prudent, might lack the aggressive targets previously envisioned, seeing it as less of a catalyst for significant multiple expansion.
• Concerns remain over the company’s near-term ability to raise guidance meaningfully, especially following modest commentary on sales and EBIT margin growth.
• The implementation of discounts in peer-based valuation models signals increased scrutiny over maintaining premium multiples, particularly as industry competition intensifies.

What's in the News

• The Board of Directors of Ferrari N.V. authorized a new share buyback plan on October 9, 2025 and announced a program to repurchase up to €3.5 billion of its shares (Key Developments).
• Ferrari N.V. has provided long-term financial guidance for 2030, targeting net revenues of approximately €9.0 billion and EBIT of at least €2.75 billion with a margin of at least 30 percent, driven by a richer product mix and increased personalizations (Key Developments).
• The company proposed to increase its dividend pay-out ratio to 40 percent of adjusted net profit from the 2025 annual results, estimating total dividend distribution of around €3.5 billion from 2027 to 2031 (Key Developments).
• Ferrari revised its 2025 guidance, now expecting net revenues to be greater than or equal to €7.1 billion, up from earlier estimates of greater than €7.0 billion (Key Developments).
• 2025 earnings guidance was confirmed, with expectations for positive product and country mix, improved racing activity contributions, lifestyle segment growth and robust free cash flow generation (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• The Fair Value Estimate has decreased from $530.84 to $477.93, reflecting a more cautious outlook.
• The Discount Rate has risen slightly to 15.56 percent, up from 15.49 percent, indicating a marginally higher perceived risk.
• Revenue Growth projections have been lowered, now estimated at 6.70 percent compared to the previous 7.77 percent.
• The Net Profit Margin is expected to be modestly lower, revised down to 23.50 percent from 23.93 percent.
• Future P/E ratio forecasts have also fallen, moving from 58.26x to 55.26x.