Ferrari’s analyst price target has been raised from approximately $525.00 to $530.84. This increase reflects analysts’ expectations for improved margins and robust capital returns, even as revenue growth estimates moderate slightly.
Analyst Commentary
Recent street research reflects a mix of optimism about Ferrari’s long-term growth prospects and some caution regarding near-term valuation and guidance. Analysts have updated their price targets and provided commentary ahead of key company events, such as the upcoming Capital Markets Day and new model launches.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts highlight Ferrari’s strong brand heritage and robust pricing power as underpinnings for durable returns on capital. These factors support a compelling long-term investment thesis.
- There is expectation for price and mix-driven upside, particularly as the company pursues ambitious mid-term targets, including adjusted EBIT margins with potential to exceed 30 percent.
- Analysts anticipate near-term catalysts from new model announcements and major events. Examples include the unveiling of Ferrari’s first electric vehicle concept and the presentation of a detailed "value over volume" strategy.
- Forecasts include potential increases to the dividend pay-out ratio and share buyback programs, which indicate management’s confidence in capital return and balance sheet strength.
- Some analysts have trimmed their price targets due to the view that 2025 guidance may only see slight improvement in sales and EBIT margin, with certain longer-term plans aligning with consensus expectations.
- Concerns have been raised that recent share weakness could result from market overreactions to guidance updates or comments regarding U.S. residual values. This suggests volatility related to ongoing news flow.
- Cautious perspectives suggest that while Ferrari can afford further buybacks, investors will closely monitor the company’s ability to deliver substantial EPS and free cash flow growth.
- A select group maintains a less constructive stance and warns that current valuation might outpace execution if targets are not decisively surpassed in upcoming strategic updates.
What's in the News
- Ferrari N.V. has confirmed its earnings guidance for the full year 2025, projecting net revenues to exceed EUR 7.0 billion (Key Developments).
- Guidance for 2025 is supported by a positive product and geographical mix, strong customer personalization, and increased contributions from racing and Formula 1 activities. These are driven by higher sponsorships and commercial revenue (Key Developments).
- The company is expanding its lifestyle activities and investing in the development and enlargement of its network to support revenue growth (Key Developments).
- Brand investments, increased digital transformation, and higher costs from ongoing supply chain challenges are expected in 2025. There will also be a higher effective tax rate due to changes in the Patent Box regime (Key Developments).
- Robust industrial free cash flow generation is anticipated, with strong profitability partially offset by more contained capital expenditures compared to the prior year (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target has increased slightly from $525.00 to $530.84.
- Discount Rate has risen marginally from 15.34 percent to 15.49 percent.
- Revenue Growth expectations have moderated, decreasing from 8.10 percent to 7.77 percent.
- Net Profit Margin is expected to improve modestly from 23.64 percent to 23.93 percent.
- Future P/E (price-to-earnings) ratio has fallen significantly from 67.5x to 58.3x, which reflects lower valuation multiples projected ahead.
Disclaimer
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