Update shared on26 Sep 2025
Fair value Increased 5.03%The upward revision in NIO's price target reflects analysts' increased confidence in strong new model order momentum, improving profitability outlook, and accelerating revenue growth, resulting in a higher fair value estimate of $6.58.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts cite strong order momentum for Nio’s new models (L90, ES8, Onvo L80), driving upward revisions to volume estimates for 2025-2027 and expectations of accelerated revenue growth.
- Positive catalysts identified include upcoming events such as Q2 results, formal pricing of new SUVs, Nio Day product launches, and reveals at major auto shows, which are anticipated to further boost sentiment and orders.
- Profitability outlook is improving as non-GAAP net loss narrowed more than expected in Q2; analysts project significant reduction in losses for 2025-2026 and potential turn to adjusted profit by 2027.
- Margin expansion and production ramp-ups, especially in the context of China’s new energy vehicle market recovery and Nio’s expanding power swap infrastructure, are seen as supportive for valuation.
- External factors such as minimal U.S. tariff impact on vehicle prices and robust EV sales momentum (partly due to expiring incentives) are considered positives for Nio’s near-term growth prospects.
What's in the News
- NIO completed a follow-on equity offering, raising $1.81 billion through American Depositary Shares and Class A ordinary shares.
- 2.26 billion Class A and 148.5 million Class C ordinary shares are subject to a 91-day lock-up ending in December 2025, restricting sales and transfers by the company, directors, and executive officers.
- NIO and Cheche Group advanced their partnership to deliver enhanced insurance services across NIO's brands; NIO delivered 31,305 vehicles in August 2025 (up 55.2% year-over-year) and set a new monthly record, with Q4 monthly delivery targets of 50,000 units.
- NIO expects Q3 2025 revenues between RMB 21,812–22,876 million (USD 3,045–3,193 million), an increase of 16.8%–22.5% year-over-year.
- The board scheduled a meeting to approve unaudited financial results for the three and six months ended June 2025.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for NIO
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen from $6.26 to $6.58.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for NIO has risen slightly from 28.8% per annum to 30.1% per annum.
- The Net Profit Margin for NIO has risen slightly from 5.06% to 5.17%.
Disclaimer
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