Update shared on21 Sep 2025
Fair value Increased 6.78%Analysts have raised Tesla’s price target to $331.58, reflecting renewed optimism around Q3–Q4 deliveries, autonomy and robotics growth potential, and successful product rollouts like Robotaxi and FSD, despite near-term margin concerns and mixed views on demand sustainability.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts highlighted growing confidence in Tesla's Q3 and Q4 delivery volumes, citing upwardly revised estimates, particularly on the back of global survey data and new product/capacity developments, with expectations for long-term earnings growth from autonomy and robotics businesses.
- Broad investor optimism stems from the recent launch and real-world demonstration of Tesla’s Robotaxi service and the public rollout of FSD/Optimus, which are seen as significant catalysts and competitive advantages, even as near-term automotive margins face lingering headwinds from weaker regulatory credit revenue and EV tax credit expirations.
- Tesla’s new long-term incentive package for CEO Elon Musk is broadly interpreted as a positive measure to retain and motivate leadership during a transformative period, driving positive sentiment about future execution on ambitious growth milestones in auto deliveries, FSD, robotaxi, and humanoid robotics.
- Bearish analysts remain concerned about persistent weak electric vehicle demand in key markets (notably North America and Europe), declining regulatory credit revenues, and exposure to evolving tariff/regulatory environments, resulting in lower near-term margin forecasts and reduced delivery volumes below consensus.
- Consensus is mixed or cautious regarding near-term profitability and growth trajectory; while bullish analysts emphasize autonomy/robotics optionality, bearish and neutral sentiment references elevated uncertainty around Q4 demand post-tax credits, potential one-off delivery spikes, risk to full-year outlook, and competitive pressures from rival automakers and new entrants.
What's in the News
- Tesla settled two lawsuits related to fatal 2019 Autopilot crashes in California, following a prior $243M verdict; terms of the settlements remain undisclosed (Reuters).
- Multiple safety and regulatory concerns continue: Tesla is redesigning door handles after safety scrutiny (Bloomberg), faces NHTSA attention over FSD failures at railroad crossings (NBC News), and a new Texas law will require permits for self-driving vehicles (Reuters).
- Tesla’s market share and sales are under pressure: U.S. market share hit its lowest since 2017 in August, with sales falling in Europe and California amid intensifying competition from BYD and others (Reuters, WSJ).
- The company is disbanding its Dojo supercomputer project, intending to increase reliance on external technology partners such as Nvidia, AMD, and Samsung (Bloomberg).
- Shareholder and legal risks persist: Tesla faces a new class-action lawsuit over alleged deceptive FSD advertising (Electrek), as well as proposals and scrutiny related to xAI investments and perceived hiring practices (Reuters).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Tesla
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen from $310.53 to $331.58.
- The Future P/E for Tesla has risen from 81.27x to 87.67x.
- The Discount Rate for Tesla remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 10.45% to 10.54%.
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.