Update shared on13 Sep 2025
Fair value Increased 4.81%The consensus price target for JDE Peet's was raised to €29.39 as analysts factored in the all-cash acquisition offer by Keurig Dr Pepper—seen supportive by bulls but criticized by bears for valuation and leverage concerns—while also reflecting anticipated operational improvements and acceptance of the deal as capping upside.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts highlight the EUR 31.85 per share all-cash acquisition of JDE Peet's by Keurig Dr Pepper as supportive for the current price level.
- Bearish analysts express concern over Keurig Dr Pepper's acquisition, citing the "rich" valuation paid, deal margin dilution, and increased debt load, questioning the ability to de-lever post-transaction.
- Several analysts raised price targets in anticipation of JDE Peet's resetting mid-term targets, exiting non-core retail café assets, and launching a cost savings plan.
- Analyst target price increases also reflect expectations for operational improvements, such as consolidation of legacy systems and rationalization of business segments.
- Some upgrades to Neutral from more negative ratings reflect acceptance of the acquisition offer as a cap on upside, with price targets converging around the deal price.
What's in the News
- Keurig Dr Pepper is nearing a deal to acquire JDE Peet’s for approximately $18 billion, with plans to separate beverage and coffee operations post-acquisition (Wall Street Journal).
- On August 25, 2025, Keurig Dr Pepper entered a definitive agreement to acquire JDE Peet’s N.V. for €15.6 billion via an all-cash tender offer, to be funded with a mix of debt and cash (Key Developments).
- Following the acquisition, KDP intends to spin off into two U.S.-listed companies: “Beverage Co.” focused on North America and “Global Coffee Co.” as the world’s largest pure-play coffee business; management and headquarters locations for each have been designated (Key Developments).
- The acquisition has unanimous board approval, is subject to regulatory clearances, includes a €156.7 million termination fee for KDP if the deal fails, and is expected to close in the first half of 2026 (Key Developments).
- Between February and July 2025, JDE Peet’s completed a €95 million share buyback, repurchasing 4,345,718 shares (0.89% of outstanding shares) (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for JDE Peet's
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen slightly from €28.04 to €29.39.
- The Future P/E for JDE Peet's has risen slightly from 18.56x to 19.40x.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for JDE Peet's remained effectively unchanged, at 3.3% per annum.
Disclaimer
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