Update shared on 21 Dec 2025
Analysts have modestly raised their price target on Takeda Pharmaceutical to 4,946 yen, reflecting steady expectations for revenue growth, profit margins, and future valuation multiples despite only marginal adjustments to their models.
What's in the News
- Positive Phase 3 results for zasocitinib (TAK-279) in moderate to severe plaque psoriasis, with superiority to placebo and apremilast across primary and 44 ranked secondary endpoints, support the potential of a once daily oral TYK2 inhibitor in dermatology. (Company announcement)
- New 52 week Phase 3 VERIFY data for rusfertide in polycythemia vera show durable hematocrit control and reduced phlebotomy needs over one year, reinforcing its efficacy and safety profile in a high unmet need hematologic condition. (Company announcement)
- Interim Phase 1b data for mezagitamab (TAK-079) in IgA nephropathy demonstrate stable kidney function and sustained reductions in proteinuria and Gd IgA1 up to 18 months after last dose, supporting ongoing Phase 3 development and recent U.S. and EU regulatory designations. (Company announcement)
- Seven year TIDES trial results for QDENGA confirm sustained dengue protection with a two dose regimen and support World Health Organization prequalification, strengthening Takeda's position in global vaccine markets. (Company announcement)
- Takeda will discontinue in house cell therapy efforts and seek partners for its platform while recognizing a JPY 58 billion impairment on related intangible assets, and will refocus investment on small molecules, biologics, and antibody drug conjugates. (Company announcement)
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate has been maintained at approximately ¥4,946 per share, indicating no change in the modeled long term intrinsic value.
- Discount Rate remains unchanged at 4.8 percent, reflecting a stable view of Takeda Pharmaceutical's risk profile and cost of capital.
- Revenue Growth forecast has edged down fractionally from about 1.89 percent to 1.89 percent, a change that is mathematically negligible and does not affect the broader outlook.
- Net Profit Margin assumption has decreased by an immaterial amount from roughly 7.00054 percent to 7.00054 percent, effectively leaving margin expectations unchanged.
- Future P E multiple is unchanged at about 27.19 times, signaling a consistent view of Takeda Pharmaceutical's longer term valuation relative to earnings.
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