Update shared on 07 Dec 2025
Fair value Increased 0.81%Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Takeda Pharmaceutical modestly higher to approximately ¥4,946 from about ¥4,906, reflecting slightly stronger long term revenue growth expectations and a marginally higher future earnings multiple, despite a small compression in projected profit margins.
What's in the News
- Revised guidance for fiscal year 2025 points to softer top line and a sharper drop in reported operating profit, driven by weaker ENTYVIO and VYVANSE sales, unfavorable product mix and higher expected impairments, partly offset by R and D cost savings (company guidance).
- The Ninth Circuit upheld certification of a landmark civil RICO class action over diabetes drug Actos, exposing Takeda and Eli Lilly to potentially more than JPY 1 billion in trebled damages and raising legal and regulatory risk around historic safety disclosures (lawsuit filing and court decision).
- Takeda is discontinuing its in house cell therapy efforts and taking a roughly JPY 58 billion impairment on its gamma delta T cell platform, while seeking partners to carry the technology forward and reallocating capital toward small molecules, biologics and ADCs (company statement).
- Key late stage pipeline readouts include positive Phase 3 data for narcolepsy candidate oveporexton and long term efficacy and safety signals for rusfertide in polycythemia vera and mezagitamab in IgA nephropathy, reinforcing a pivot toward targeted specialty therapies (medical congress presentations).
- Strategic initiatives span a major oncology collaboration with Innovent Biologics and a low carbon shipping partnership with VELA Transport, alongside an announced CEO transition to Julie Kim in June 2026. Together these developments are reshaping Takeda's global footprint and leadership profile (company announcements).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly to approximately ¥4,946 from about ¥4,906, reflecting modestly stronger long term assumptions.
- The discount rate is unchanged at 4.8%, indicating no shift in the analyst view of Takeda's risk profile.
- Revenue growth edged up marginally to about 1.89% from roughly 1.89%, signaling a very small improvement in long term growth expectations.
- Net profit margin eased slightly to roughly 7.00% from around 7.03%, suggesting a minor anticipated compression in profitability.
- Future P/E increased modestly to about 27.2x from roughly 26.8x, implying a slightly higher valuation multiple applied to projected earnings.
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