Update shared on 23 Nov 2025
Narrative Update on Takeda Pharmaceutical: Analyst Price Target Revision
Analysts have maintained Takeda Pharmaceutical's fair value estimate at ¥4,906.40. This reflects minimal adjustments to revenue growth and profit margin forecasts while keeping the overall outlook stable.
What's in the News
- Takeda released new interim results from the Phase 1b study of mezagitamab (TAK-079) in IgA nephropathy, showing stable kidney function and sustained proteinuria reduction through 18 months after the last dose. Mezagitamab also gained Orphan Drug and Breakthrough Therapy designations in the EU and US, respectively. (Key Developments)
- The company completed its pivotal 7-year Phase 3 TIDES trial for its dengue vaccine, QDENGA. The vaccine was added to the World Health Organization's List of Prequalified Vaccines, supporting public vaccination programs against dengue worldwide. (Key Developments)
- Takeda revised its fiscal year 2025 earnings guidance downward, citing lower-than-expected revenue from certain products and increased impairment losses. Revenue and profit projections for the year were reduced compared to earlier forecasts. (Key Developments)
- Julie Kim has been appointed to succeed Christophe Weber as Chief Executive Officer of Takeda in June 2026. Kim is preparing for the CEO transition as interim head of the Global Portfolio Division. (Key Developments)
- Takeda announced a strategic partnership with Innovent Biologics to globally develop and commercialize next-generation immuno-oncology and antibody-drug conjugate cancer therapies. This partnership strengthens its oncology pipeline. (Key Developments)
Valuation Changes
- The Fair Value Estimate remains unchanged at ¥4,906.40, reflecting a stable outlook.
- The Discount Rate holds steady at 4.8% with no adjustments from previous analyses.
- Revenue Growth has decreased slightly and is now forecast at 1.89% compared to the prior 1.91%.
- Net Profit Margin has edged down marginally to 7.03% from 7.08%.
- The Future P/E Ratio has risen slightly to 26.84x from the previous 26.66x.
Disclaimer
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