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MSLH: Leadership Transition And Higher Risk Perception Will Shape Future Prospects

UK Housing Hikes Will Curb Margins Yet Recovery Will Emerge

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MSLH
AnalystLowTarget
Not Invested
Published 21 Jul 2025

Update shared on 13 Dec 2025

Fair value Decreased 10%
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AnalystLowTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
-39.5%
7D
3.9%

Analysts have lowered their price target on Marshalls by approximately £0.22 per share, reflecting a higher perceived discount rate despite modestly stronger expectations for revenue growth and profit margins.

What's in the News

  • Chief Executive Officer Matt Pullen will step down from his role effective November 27, 2025, prompting a leadership transition at Marshalls (Key Developments)
  • Simon Bourne, currently Group Chief Commercial Officer, has been appointed Interim Chief Executive Officer to provide continuity and maintain strategic focus (Key Developments)
  • Bourne, who joined Marshalls in 2015 and became Chief Operating Officer in 2022, played a key role in developing the Group's Transform & Grow strategy, which he will now oversee in execution (Key Developments)

Valuation Changes

  • Fair Value: estimated intrinsic value per share has decreased from £2.10 to £1.88, representing a modest downward revision.
  • Discount Rate: assumed cost of capital has risen from 8.62 percent to 9.30 percent, indicating a slightly higher perceived risk profile.
  • Revenue Growth: forecast annual revenue growth has increased from approximately 2.58 percent to 2.91 percent, reflecting marginally stronger top line expectations.
  • Net Profit Margin: projected net profit margin has improved from about 6.84 percent to 7.23 percent, suggesting a small upgrade to profitability assumptions.
  • Future P/E: forward price to earnings multiple has fallen from roughly 14.5 times to 12.4 times, pointing to a somewhat cheaper valuation on expected earnings.

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Disclaimer

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