Update shared on 03 Nov 2025
Fair value Increased 0.30%Antofagasta's analyst price target has recently been lowered by a moderate margin, with new targets ranging from £24.00 to £34.00. Analysts cite updated valuation assumptions and evolving expectations for profit margins and growth rates.
Analyst Commentary
Recent updates from major financial institutions reveal a mix of optimism and caution surrounding Antofagasta's valuation and future performance. Analysts have carefully balanced upgrades and downgrades as they reflect shifting expectations for growth and profitability.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts see potential for upside, highlighted by significant price target increases in recent months and an emphasis on the company's long-term growth initiatives.
- Upgrades to target prices suggest confidence in Antofagasta's ability to improve margins and deliver earnings growth, particularly as commodity markets remain robust.
- Continued Overweight and Buy ratings from leading banks reinforce a view that Antofagasta is well positioned to capitalize on favorable market dynamics in copper and related sectors.
- Some analysts point to increases in profit forecasts, reflecting expectations that management will execute effectively on their operational objectives.
- Bearish analysts highlight valuation concerns, with several downgrades based on the belief that Antofagasta's share price has already priced in much of the anticipated growth.
- Caution has been expressed around narrowing profit margins, as indicated by reductions in price targets and more conservative growth projections.
- Several analysts have shifted to Hold or Underperform ratings, citing a perceived disconnect between current share prices and underlying financial performance.
- Macro uncertainty in the copper market contributes to reluctance among some commentators to recommend aggressive positions in the near term.
What's in the News
- Reported third quarter 2025 production results: Copper production reached 161.8 kt, gold production was 53.9 koz, and molybdenum production totaled 3.9 kt. (Key Developments)
- For the year to date, copper production stands at 476.6 kt, gold at 145.0 koz, and molybdenum at 11.4 kt. (Key Developments)
- The Board declared an interim dividend of 16.6 cents per ordinary share for the first half of 2025. Payment is set for 30 September 2025. (Key Developments)
- Production guidance for fiscal year 2026 anticipates copper output between 650,000 and 700,000 tonnes. Projected growth is expected at Los Pelambres. (Key Developments)
- Full year 2025 copper production is expected at the lower end of the 660,000 to 700,000 tonne guidance range. (Key Developments)
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value has risen slightly, from £24.71 to £24.79 per share.
- Discount Rate has increased marginally, moving from 8.09% to 8.13%.
- Revenue Growth expectations have improved, with the growth rate moving from 9.14% to 9.75%.
- Net Profit Margin is expected to increase, rising from 16.53% to 16.99%.
- Future P/E ratio projections have decreased, falling from 25.78x to 24.20x.
Disclaimer
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