Update shared on25 Sep 2025
Fair value Increased 1.30%Shell’s price target has edged up to £30.50 as analysts remain broadly supportive, citing strong growth prospects and a favorable refining outlook despite some concerns about near-term momentum.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts cited Shell's distinctive mix of growth, resource depth, and sustainable shareholder returns, with medium-term refining outlook becoming increasingly favorable.
- Recent integrated oil and refining sector updates led to upward adjustments in price targets for major stocks like Shell.
- Despite long-term strengths, some bearish analysts flagged expectations of weak momentum for Shell in the coming quarters.
- Minor price target reductions reflected near-term market sensitivities and modest adjustments to valuation models.
- Overall sentiment among major analysts remains supportive, with continued Overweight or Outperform ratings despite target tweaks.
What's in the News
- OPEC+ will increase oil output by 137,000 barrels/day in October 2025 amid concerns over a supply glut and softer prices, impacting major producers including Shell. (The Wall Street Journal, 2025-09-08)
- Shell lost a $1.7 billion arbitration case to Venture Global regarding LNG cargoes, with potential wider financial implications for the sector as similar claims total $7.4 billion. (The Wall Street Journal, 2025-08-13)
- Shell commenced a new share buyback program authorized for up to 10% of its issued share capital (602 million shares), with the repurchase authority expiring in August 2026 or at the next AGM. (Key Developments, 2025-07-31)
- As of July 2025, Shell completed a substantial tranche of its buyback program, repurchasing 101.6 million shares (1.69% of share capital) for $3.5 billion. (Key Developments, 2025-07-31)
- Shell entered a conditional agreement with Libya’s National Oil Corporation to assess and potentially develop the Al-Atshan field, supporting expansion of its upstream portfolio in Libya. (Key Developments, 2025-07-08)
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Shell
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from £30.10 to £30.50.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Shell has significantly risen from 1.8% per annum to 3.3% per annum.
- The Net Profit Margin for Shell has fallen slightly from 6.93% to 6.76%.
Disclaimer
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