Update shared on 03 Dec 2025
Narrative Update
Analysts have maintained their price target for tonies at €11.37, as modest tweaks to the discount rate and forward valuation assumptions were not significant enough to justify a change in the overall valuation framework.
What's in the News
- Confirmed 2025 guidance with group revenue expected to grow by more than 25% in constant currency, taking revenue above EUR 600 million (Company guidance)
- Expanded long term licensing agreement with Hasbro to bring select Hasbro Games titles, including Monopoly, to the Toniebox 2 in new interactive Tonieplay formats starting in 2026 (Company announcement)
- Planned Tonieplay game launches to roll out across core markets, including North America, DACH, the UK, France, and Australia/New Zealand, with further titles and details to be announced closer to launch (Company announcement)
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value: unchanged at approximately €11.37 per share, reflecting a stable central valuation view.
- Discount Rate: risen slightly from about 5.05 percent to roughly 5.10 percent, implying a marginally higher required return.
- Revenue Growth: effectively unchanged at around 22.6 percent, indicating no material revision to top line expectations.
- Net Profit Margin: stable at roughly 7.1 percent, with only immaterial numerical rounding differences.
- Future P/E: risen slightly from about 22.52x to approximately 22.55x, pointing to a marginally higher implied earnings multiple.
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