Update shared on 19 Nov 2025
Fair value Increased 3.02%Analysts have raised their price target for tonies from EUR 11.03 to EUR 11.37. They cite continued company performance and an improved profit margin outlook following recent results.
Analyst Commentary
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts have raised their price targets, reflecting confidence in tonies' continued execution and positive outlook.
- Recent results demonstrate consistent company performance, which suggests strong demand and effective management strategies.
- Improving profit margins are expected to support valuation growth and further investor interest in the company.
- Upward momentum following the Q2 report points to potential for sustained revenue expansion in upcoming quarters.
Bearish Takeaways
- While price targets have been raised, analysts note that further growth may depend on maintaining recent margin improvements over a longer period.
- Some caution exists around the ability to replicate strong results amid changing market conditions and consumer trends.
- There is an ongoing need for continued execution on strategic initiatives to justify elevated valuations.
What's in the News
- tonies SE and Hasbro have expanded their long-term licensing agreement, bringing classic Hasbro Games, such as Monopoly, to the new Toniebox 2 and Tonieplay product line beginning in 2026. (Key Developments)
- Toniebox 2, the company's most significant product innovation since its founding, has launched with enhanced features for independent, screen-free audio play and new sleep and wake routines for children. (Key Developments)
- The introduction of Tonieplay marks tonies' expansion into interactive, screen-free gaming, launching with games featuring licensed characters and the proprietary Tonieplay ecosystem. (Key Developments)
- tonies SE provided guidance for 2025, forecasting group revenue growth exceeding 25% and North American revenue growth above 30%, driven by international expansion. (Key Developments)
- My First Tonies, a new collection of soft, squeezable figurines designed for babies and toddlers, was introduced alongside the Toniebox 2 launch. (Key Developments)
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value: Consensus analyst price target has risen slightly from €11.03 to €11.37 per share.
- Discount Rate: The discount rate has edged down from 5.08% to 5.05%, indicating marginally reduced perceived risk.
- Revenue Growth: Forecast annual revenue growth rate has fallen modestly from 22.91% to 22.63%.
- Net Profit Margin: Projected net profit margin has increased from 6.50% to 7.09%, reflecting improved profitability expectations.
- Future P/E: The estimated future price-to-earnings ratio has declined from 23.70x to 22.52x, suggesting a slightly lower valuation multiple.
Disclaimer
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