VACN: Share Price Will Track Semiconductor Cycle Recovery Into 2026 Upswing

The analyst price target for VAT Group has increased to about CHF 379 from roughly CHF 368, as analysts highlight improving medium term growth prospects and a slightly higher future valuation multiple, despite only modest tweaks to revenue growth and discount rate assumptions.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research updates present a mixed but gradually improving outlook for VAT Group, with bullish analysts highlighting upside into the 2026 to 2027 cycle and more cautious voices focused on valuation discipline and execution risk in the nearer term.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts see attractive upside potential into 2026 and 2027 after a phase of share price underperformance, arguing that the current cycle reset is laying the foundation for the next leg of growth.
• Upgrades to Buy and sharply higher price targets in some cases reflect greater confidence that VAT Group can capture a disproportionate share of wafer fab equipment and vacuum valve demand as capex spending normalizes.
• The step up in target prices from selected firms signals a belief that the stock deserves a higher valuation multiple over the medium term, supported by structural growth in semiconductor and advanced packaging markets.
• Moderate increases in price targets from more neutral stances suggest that even balanced analysts acknowledge improving execution and a healthier order backdrop, albeit with a more measured view on upside.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts, or those maintaining neutral ratings, continue to trim price targets, emphasizing that the shares already discount a meaningful portion of the anticipated recovery in earnings.
• Cautious views focus on execution risk around timing and magnitude of the next upcycle, warning that any delay in customer capex or wafer fab build outs could limit near term growth momentum.
• There is concern that valuation may be stretched relative to peers if growth underwhelms, with some analysts preferring to wait for clearer evidence of order inflection before turning more constructive.
• Hesitation to move beyond Hold or Equal Weight reflects worries that margin normalization and operating leverage may progress more slowly than the current consensus implies, leaving limited room for error.

What's in the News

• VAT Group issued new earnings guidance for Q4 2025, forecasting sales between CHF 225 million and CHF 245 million, which signals management confidence in near-term demand trends (company guidance).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value: Risen slightly from approximately CHF 368.20 to about CHF 378.87, reflecting a modest uplift in the intrinsic value estimate.
• Discount Rate: Edged down marginally from about 5.15 percent to roughly 5.14 percent, indicating a slightly lower perceived risk profile.
• Revenue Growth: Increased slightly from around 11.43 percent to approximately 11.49 percent, pointing to a modestly stronger medium term growth outlook.
• Net Profit Margin: Narrowed fractionally from about 26.42 percent to roughly 26.38 percent, implying a near stable but marginally lower profitability assumption.
• Future P/E: Risen moderately from roughly 33.43x to about 34.40x, suggesting a somewhat higher expected valuation multiple on forward earnings.