VACN: Share Price Will Reflect Recovery As Semiconductor Spending Cycles Normalize

We raise our fair value estimate for VAT Group to CHF 368.20 from CHF 351.80, as analysts highlight improving long term growth and margin prospects, reflected in a series of upwardly revised price targets despite some near term target trims.

Analyst Commentary

Street research on VAT Group has become more constructive overall, with bullish analysts pointing to an improving multi year growth profile and better margin execution, while more cautious voices focus on valuation and near term order visibility.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts highlight a reset following two years of underperformance, arguing that the current entry point does not fully reflect the recovery potential they see into 2026 and 2027.
• Recent upgrades and sizeable price target increases suggest growing confidence that VAT Group can capitalize on an eventual upturn in semiconductor capital spending, supporting a higher through cycle earnings base.
• The upward revisions to some targets signal improved conviction in management's ability to defend margins and expand profitability as volumes normalize, which underpins our higher fair value estimate.
• Supportive commentary indicates that structural demand for high end vacuum valves in advanced node and specialty applications remains intact, reinforcing the long term growth case despite cyclical noise.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts who maintain neutral stances and trim price targets point to a less attractive risk reward in the near term, with shares already discounting part of the anticipated recovery.
• There is concern that order momentum could remain uneven over the next several quarters, which may limit upside to consensus estimates and justify more conservative valuation multiples.
• Some research flags execution risk around scaling capacity and maintaining pricing power in a more competitive environment, particularly if wafer fab equipment spending rebounds more slowly than expected.
• Moderate target cuts from more cautious houses underscore the view that while the long term story is compelling, investors may need to navigate ongoing volatility in earnings and sentiment before the full upside is realized.

What's in the News

• Issued new earnings guidance for the final quarter of 2025, with expected sales in the CHF 225 million to CHF 245 million range (company guidance).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value Estimate increased modestly to CHF 368.20 from CHF 351.80, reflecting slightly stronger long term assumptions.
• Discount Rate edged up marginally to 5.15 percent from 5.12 percent, implying a slightly higher required return.
• Revenue Growth has risen slightly in the model to 11.43 percent from 11.27 percent, indicating a marginally stronger top line trajectory.
• Net Profit Margin was raised meaningfully to 26.42 percent from 24.51 percent, capturing improved profitability expectations.
• Future P/E was reduced slightly to 33.43 times from 34.57 times, tempering valuation multiples despite better earnings power.