When silver hits $100/oz

🪙 Aftermath Silver Ltd. (AAG / AAGFF) – 2025 Update

Latest official info

• Shares Outstanding (basic): ~302,529,011 (Issued & Outstanding as of May 15, 2025). Warrants: ~27,229,106; Options ~16,025,000; RSUs ~2,900,000. Fully diluted ~348,683,117. (Aftermath Silver Ltd.)
• Projects: Berenguela (Peru) – silver-copper-manganese deposit; excellent infrastructure in place; resource estimates in place; metallurgical test work underway. (Aftermath Silver Ltd.)
• Recent drill results at Berenguela (Phase-2): high grades of silver, copper, manganese. Multiple long intercepts, open for expansion especially to east. (Aftermath Silver Ltd.)

Assumptions for valuation scenario

• Production potential: ~7.5 million oz AgEq/year (you used this earlier combining projects).
• AISC assumption (placeholder): US$15/oz, but this is highly speculative because company has not published steady-state AISC.
• Shares (basic): ~302,529,011

⚠️ Risks (detailed)

• Timeline to production is long: Berenguela needs additional metallurgical and feasibility work; Challacollo (Chile) likely longer.
• Dilution risk: To fund development and expansion, more financing (equity or debt) will likely be necessary.
• Dependence on manganese & copper credits: Many of the upside numbers assume good by-product credits, which may or may not be fully realized.
• Execution risk: Large scale development (mining + processing) has risks in cost overrun, permitting, infrastructure, access, recovery.
• Metal price sensitivity: If silver or copper prices stay low, the economics weaken.
• Permitting & local/regional risks: Working in Peru has permitted risks (environment, community, regulatory).

⚡ Catalysts (next 6-24 months)

• Updated NI43-101 resource estimates (integrating Phase-2 drilling) at Berenguela. (Aftermath Silver Ltd.)
• Continued high grade drill results / step-outs, especially to open the deposit further east or at depth. (Aftermath Silver Ltd.)
• Metallurgical test work results and optimization, especially for copper-silver-manganese by-product recoveries.
• Feasibility study(s) or PEA upgrades for Berenguela (or combined with Challacollo).
• Financing / partnership / off-take agreements that help de-risk funding.

🗺️ Risks & Catalysts Mapped to Timeline

2025

• 🚧 Risks: Metallurgy test results might disappoint; resource upgrade delays; financing not secured.
• ⚡ Catalysts: Drill results already coming; resource updates in process; by-product test recoveries.

2026-2027

• 🚧 Risks: Permitting, infrastructure, community issues; cost escalation; financing could dilute.
• ⚡ Catalysts: FS / advanced studies; potential partner / off-take; stronger resource in measured/indicated.

2028-2030

• 🚧 Risks: Building / operating scale; sustaining costs; commodity price drops.
• ⚡ Catalysts: Commercial production from Berenguela; copper and manganese by-product revenues; silver price strength.

📊 Detailed Valuation Sensitivities

Assumptions:

• Annual AgEq production: 7.5 million oz
• Shares (basic): ~302,529,011
• AISC = US$28/oz

Detailed Valuation Sensitivities

Silver = US$100/oz

• Margin/oz = 100 − 28 = US$72/oz
• Annual FCF = 7.5M × 72 = US$540M
• Valuation multiples:
  • 10× FCF → US$5.40B → per share ≈ US$17.85
  • 15× FCF → US$8.10B → per share ≈ US$26.78
  • 20× FCF → US$10.80B → per share ≈ US$35.70

Silver = US$150/oz

• Margin = 150 − 28 = US$122/oz
• Annual FCF = 7.5M × 122 = US$915M
• Valuation multiples:
  • 10× → US$9.15B → ~ US$30.25/sh
  • 15× → US$13.725B → ~ US$45.37/sh
  • 20× → US$18.30B → ~ US$60.50/sh

🧮 What This Means

• Using a more realistic “high-end” silver AISC lifts your cost assumption materially, which cuts the margin sharply vs your earlier low-cost model.
• Even with AISC = US$28, Aftermath still has decent upside under high silver prices (US$100-$150) but the per-share numbers are lower than with very low cost assumptions.
• This shows sensitivity: cost assumptions matter a lot. If a project underestimates AISC, the model gets overstated in output.

📅 Expected full timeline (now → full production)

• 2025: Finish Phase-2 drilling; resource revision; metallurgical results; securing full title / royalties / payments (EMX, SSR). (Aftermath Silver Ltd.)
• 2026: Feasibility / PEA upgrades; permitting; identifying partners / funding; begin development planning.
• 2027-2028: Engineering, permitting, securing financing; construction/preparation.
• 2029-2030: Potential commercial production at Berenguela (if all goes well); Challacollo may follow or run in parallel depending on resources and capex.

🎯 Conclusion

✅ Shares outstanding ~302.5M (basic), ~348.7M fully diluted. Use these for modeling. (Aftermath Silver Ltd.)

✅ AISC placeholder US$15/oz is optimistic; real AISC likely higher once scale, processing, copper/manganese credits, and infrastructure costs are factored.

✅ Silver $100++ case gives a fair-value range of US$17–60/sh depending on multiple.

⚠️ Upside relies heavily on by-product credits, metallurgy, cost control, and successful resource upgrades.

🚀 Aftermath Silver has strong leverage to silver/copper/manganese; with good results and funding, could be a high-return play over multi-year horizon.