Update shared on18 Sep 2025
🪙 Aftermath Silver – Updated Valuation Analysis (2025)
🔑 Key Projects
Berenguela (Peru)
- Resource: ~140M oz silver (80 gpt) plus large manganese credits (potential 500M oz AgEq).
- Phase 2 drilling completed (82 holes, 5,329m); mineralization still open to the east.
- Updated NI 43-101 resource expected in 2025.
- PEA still pending (delayed; not yet released as of mid-2025).
- Development timeline: now realistically 5–6 years to production (PEA in 2025–26 → feasibility and permitting → potential 2030+ production).
Challacollo (Chile)
- Resource: ~45M oz silver (180 gpt).
- No major updates since 2020 resource estimate.
- Development timeline: 7–8 years minimum before meaningful production.
Combined production potential (conceptual, based on historical figures): ~7.5M oz AgEq/year.
💰 Valuation Scenarios (AISC assumed $20/oz average)
At $100 silver:
- Free cash flow per ounce = $80
- Annual FCF (7.5M oz × $80) = $600M
- At 10× FCF = $6.0B → about $30/share (200M shares)
- At 15× FCF = $9.0B → about $45/share
- At 20× FCF = $12.0B → about $60/share
At $150 silver:
- Free cash flow per ounce = $130
- Annual FCF (7.5M oz × $130) = $975M
- At 10× FCF = $9.75B → about $48.75/share (200M shares)
- At 15× FCF = $14.63B → about $73.13/share
- At 20× FCF = $19.50B → about $97.50/share
⚠️ Updated Risks
- Timeline delays: Berenguela’s PEA has not been completed; first production likely not before 2030.
- Financing risk: Large capex needs with no near-term cash flow; dilution likely.
- Project dependency: Heavy reliance on Berenguela; Challacollo remains inactive.
- Jurisdictional: Both Peru and Chile are mining-friendly but politically volatile.
- Commodity exposure: Economics are extremely sensitive to silver price staying elevated.
- Manganese factor: A significant portion of Berenguela’s value comes from manganese credits; recovery and pricing risk apply.
⚡ Catalysts
- Updated Berenguela resource estimate (expected 2025).
- First PEA for Berenguela (possibly late 2025–2026).
- Additional drill results expanding mineralization to the east.
- Potential strategic partnerships or joint ventures with larger miners.
- Silver price upside; valuations above $100/oz are transformational.
- Future PEA or resource work at Challacollo (still dormant).
🎯 Conclusion
Aftermath Silver remains a long-dated, high-torque silver option. The upside is massive — at $100 silver, $30–60/share is possible; at $150 silver, $48–97/share. But with production realistically 5–8 years away, it is a patience play for silver bulls. Success hinges on the Berenguela PEA, future feasibility work, and financing capacity.
Disclaimer
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