(Complete Analysis) 87,000% ROI - At gold $4,000/oz, silver $100/oz

🪙 GoGold Resources (GGD) – Updated Snapshot (Late-2025)

Latest official info

• Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding: ~393,228,378 shares. (gogoldresources.com)
• Feasibility Study – Los Ricos South (LRS): FS published Jan 16, 2025. Initial CapEx ~$227 million. Two-year build; underground mine at 2,000 tpd, ramped to produce ~7.3 million AgEq oz/year (first 5 years). AISC: US$11.19/oz AgEq over first 5 years; US$12.32/oz AgEq life of mine. (gogoldresources.com)
• Los Ricos North (LRN): PEA published May 17, 2023. Projected ~8.8 million AgEq oz/year, with AISC ~US$9.68/oz AgEq. (gogoldresources.com)
• Tailings – Parral: Generates ~US$36M FCF annually according to company reports; remaining life ~5 years. (gogoldresources.com)

⚠️ Risks

• Permitting / regulatory delays: LRS needs permitting; local & federal approvals in Mexico can be slow.
• Financing: Need the $227M CapEx for LRS; financing terms (debt/equity) may dilute or increase cost.
• Cost creep: Although FS shows low AISC (~US$11-12/oz), any deviation (lower grades, higher input costs) raises cost.
• Execution & ramp-up: Underground mining has operational risk; early years might have lower efficiencies.
• Resource conversion: LRN is still PEA level; converting to reserves, proving mineability takes time.
• Metal price risk: Upside heavily depends on silver & gold prices staying strong.
• Share dilution: Options/exercised warrants etc. add dilution; more capital raises could dilute further.

⚡ Catalysts

• Permit grants for Los Ricos South (LRS) → allows construction to begin.
• Construction decision & breaking ground for LRS.
• Financing completion for LRS (equity / debt) under favorable terms.
• Early production ramp from LRS to validate the FS assumptions.
• Resource expansion / infill at LRN, pushing towards FS / reserve status.
• Continued strong silver prices boosting margins and NPV.

🗺️ Risks & Catalysts Mapped to Timeline

• Late-2025 → 2026  🚧 Risks: Permitting delays; CapEx cost inflation; financing may take longer than expected.  ⚡ Catalysts: FS already in hand; raising funds; permitting-related milestones.
• 2027 → 2028  🚧 Risks: Construction delays; ramp up underperformance; cost overrun; possible dilution.  ⚡ Catalysts: Production from LRS; tailings revenue; visible cash flow; explore LRN further.
• 2029 → 2030+  🚧 Risks: LRN coming online late; sustaining costs; silver/gold price-pressure; regulatory / environmental constraints.  ⚡ Catalysts: Full capacity from LRS + contribution from LRN; steady FCF; potential re-rating; increased scale.

📊 Detailed FCF Scenarios (using Fully Diluted Shares = ~393,228,378)

Assumptions:

• Production from LRS: ~7.3 million AgEq oz/year (first 5 years), as per FS. (gogoldresources.com)
• Use FS AISC: US$11.19/oz AgEq (first 5 years) or life-of-mine AISC US$12.32/oz as needed. (gogoldresources.com)
• Uses multiples: 10×, 15×, 20× FCF

Scenario A: Silver = US$100/oz

• Margin per oz = 100 − 11.19 = US$88.81/oz
• Annual FCF ≈ 7,300,000 × 88.81 = US$648.4 million
• Valuation multiples:   • 10× → US$6.484B → per share ≈ US$16.50/sh   • 15× → US$9.726B → per share ≈ US$24.75/sh   • 20× → US$12.968B → per share ≈ US$33.00/sh

Scenario B: Silver = US$150/oz

• Margin per oz = 150 − 11.19 = US$138.81/oz
• Annual FCF ≈ 7,300,000 × 138.81 = US$1,013.8 million
• Valuation multiples:   • 10× → US$10.138B → ~ US$25.81/sh   • 15× → US$15.207B → ~ US$38.71/sh   • 20× → US$20.276B → ~ US$51.63/sh

Bull Case (LRS + Early LRN + Tailings) – Approx

If you assume LRS is running + LRN adds part output by ~2030 + tailings income (~US$36M), FCF might approach US$1.5-2.0B/year under high silver. Using same shares:

• 10× → US$15-20B → ≈ US$38-51/sh
• 15× → US$22.5-30B → ≈ US$57-76/sh
• 20× → US$30-40B → ≈ US$76-102/sh

🎯 Conclusion

✅ Using FD shares (~393M), GoGold’s Los Ricos South project shows very competitive AISC (~US$11-12/oz), which gives strong margin when silver is well above cost.

✅ Under silver = US$100, fair value might be US$16-33/share depending on multiple. Under silver = US$150, values rise to US$25-52/share.

✅ If Los Ricos North or tailings contribute meaningfully, you hit the $35-100/share range in bullish runs.

⚠ Major swing factors are permitting, financing, execution, and silver price.

🚀 GoGold looks well positioned to deliver high leverage to silver price.