(Complete Analysis) 87,000% ROI - At gold $4,000/oz, silver $100/oz

Here are the updated figures & some thoughts given new info + latest shares outstanding:

🔍 Latest Shares Outstanding

• Common Shares Issued & Outstanding: 378,364,961 shares. (gogoldresources.com)
• Options outstanding: ~9,667,917 shares. (gogoldresources.com)
• Deferred Share Units: ~5,195,500 shares. (gogoldresources.com)
• Fully Diluted Shares: about 393,228,378 shares. (gogoldresources.com)

So instead of using 200M or 300M shares, the real number to use is ~378–393 million when considering dilution.

🛠 Updated Key Project Assumptions

• Los Ricos South (LRS)
  • Underground project with 108M oz at 308 gpt AgEq
  • Permits expected soon; construction likely around 2026
  • Estimated 2-year build period
  • First 8 years: 6M oz/year production at $12 AISC
• Los Ricos North (LRN)
  • Open-pit project with 160M oz at 115 gpt AgEq
  • DFS planned; production expected around 2030–2031 (after LRS is online)
  • First 12 years: 9M oz/year production at $10 AISC
• Parral Tailings
  • Generates about $36M FCF annually for ~5 more years
  • At $100 silver, leverage could deliver:
    • ~8-bagger by 2028
    • ~20-bagger by 2030–2031

🔁 Revised Valuation Sketch

Let’s walk through a few scenarios with the updated info:

Scenario A: Base Case

• LRS production (6M oz/yr) starts ~2028 (assuming 2026 build + 2 years).
• LRN doesn’t yet contribute (starts ~2030+).
• Tailings (Parral etc.) contribute ~$36M FCF for 5 years.
• Silver price modest (say $50/oz) and gold price moderate (if relevant).
• Use a conservative FCF multiple, say 7×.

Calculations:

• Revenue from LRS at 6M AgEq oz × “silver‐equivalent value” (if 80% silver etc.) minus cost → FCF (we’d need a breakdown).
• Tailings: $36M/year for ~5 years.

Rough FCF might be (just estimating): maybe $200-300M/year during LRS initial full output (depending on metal price). Add tailings. Multiply by 7. Divide by ~380–400M shares → per share valuation in something like $5-$15/share in base price (if silver at $50 etc.)

Scenario B: Bull Case (High Silver / Faster Roll-out)

• Silver = $100/oz, gold also high.
• LRS produces starting ~2028, full output. LRN starts contributing by 2030.
• Low AISC in early years: $12 (LRS) & $10 (LRN).
• Include tailings FCF.
• Multiple maybe 10× (bull case).

Rough Estimate:

• LRS: 6M oz × $100 = $600M revenue; costs 6M × $12 = $72M → FCF ≈ $528M/year from LRS alone during early years.
• LRN: when it starts, 9M oz × $100 = $900M revenue; costs 9M × $10 = $90M → ~$810M FCF early on.
• Tailings: ~$36M.

If in 2030 you have both LRS + LRN + tailings, FCF might approach $1.3-1.5B/year (depending on ramp and other metals). Multiply by 10× = $13-15B market cap. Divide by say 390M fully diluted shares = $33-$38/share.

If you leave out LRN (before it kicks in), maybe ~$8-10/share in earlier years, rising to $30+ as full capacity is reached under high silver.

Scenario C: Moonshot / Extreme Case

• Silver/gold way up (silver maybe $150-$200), strong base metal offsets.
• All projects on schedule or early.
• Maybe use even higher multiple (12× for very bullish).

Could push valuations into $40-$60/share or more in later years.

⚠ Risks & Important Adjustments

• The capex for LRS ($227M) has to be financed.
• Permitting & construction delays. These often slip. So “2026 build” might not be exact.
• AISC for early years often lower; then it rises. Also recovery, metallurgical issues, logistics, inflation, might raise costs.
• LRN comes later – value far off; discount heavily for risk.