Legendary Eric Sprott Owned 28% with 25 Baggers!

🔍 Updated Facts / New Info

• The Golden Summit resource has just been upgraded (July 2025): Indicated Primary Resource is 17.2 million oz Au at 1.24 g/t, a 42% increase in ounces and 15% grade increase from Sept 2024. Inferred Primary Resource is ~11.9 million oz Au at 1.04 g/t. Freegold Ventues Limited
• Metallurgical recoveries for the sulphide portion (oxidation/R&D methods like BIOX, POX, Albion) exceed 90%. Freegold Ventues Limited+1
• Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) is planned to begin late 2025. Freegold Ventues Limited
• Share structure: ~529.16 million shares outstanding. Yahoo Finance+2Finbox+2
• Market Cap: roughly CAD $800-C$850 million (or USD equivalent around $590M-$650M depending on FX). TipRanks+2MLQ+2

💰 Updated FCF-Based Valuation Scenarios

Assumptions for new valuations:

• Average AISC (all-in sustaining cost) assumed = US$1,700/oz (same as your earlier assumption).
• Production target: assume 500,000 oz/year gold (once Golden Summit is fully in production).
• Shares outstanding: ~529 million.

Valuations under $4,500/oz and $5,000/oz gold.

At $4,500/oz gold

• Profit per ounce = $4,500 − $1,700 = $2,800/oz
• Annual FCF = 500,000 oz × $2,800 = $1,400,000,000

Valuation (using FCF multiples):

• 10× FCF = $14.0B → per share ~$26.45 ( $14.0B ÷ 529M )
• 15× FCF = $21.0B → per share ~$39.67
• 20× FCF = $28.0B → per share ~$52.89

At $5,000/oz gold

• Profit per ounce = $5,000 − $1,700 = $3,300/oz
• Annual FCF = 500,000 oz × $3,300 = $1,650,000,000

Valuation (FCF multiples):

• 10× FCF = $16.5B → per share ~$31.20
• 15× FCF = $24.75B → per share ~$46.80
• 20× FCF = $33.0B → per share ~$62.40

⚠️ Risks

• Timeline risk: PFS not started until late 2025. Production is still several years out (permits, construction).
• Cost risk: AISC of $1,700/oz is aggressive; inflation / energy / input cost volatility could push costs higher.
• Financing risk: This scale of capex will require large capital, which may come with equity dilution or expensive debt.
• Resource conversion risk: While indicated resources have increased, there is still a sizeable inferred portion; converting inferred to higher confidence takes time and cost.
• Commodity price dependency: These valuations assume very high gold price ($4,500–$5,000); if gold lags, downside is large.
• Metallurgy & recovery risk: Even though recovery tests are positive, scale-up risk remains (oxidation / sulphide processing).
• Permitting & environmental risk: Operating in Alaska has many regulatory layers; delays or requirements can increase capex/time.
• Share dilution risk: Additional shares may be issued for financing, which reduces per-share value.

⚡ Catalysts

• PFS commencement (late 2025) → detailed economic model and capex estimate.
• Further resource upgrades (especially converting inferred to indicated or measured) via 2025 drilling program (30,000m planned) at Golden Summit. Freegold Ventues Limited
• Metallurgical test work completion & optimization of processing flow-sheets (sulphide oxidation, etc.) to lock in recoveries.
• Financing success: private placements or JV partner for development capital.
• M&A interest if resource, location, infrastructure align and gold markets heat up.
• Additional drill results in Cleary and Dolphin (higher grade zones) improving grade / tonnage. Investing News Network (INN)+2Freegold Ventues Limited+2
• Broader gold price rally; gold above $3,000/oz already helps, but moving toward $4,500–$5,000 would materially re-rate.

🎯 Updated Conclusion

With the latest resource growth (Indicated + Inferred ~29 million oz in Golden Summit + significant open pit component) and positive metallurgical recoveries, Freegold is materially de-risking Golden Summit.

At gold = $4,500/oz, per-share value in the range of $26-$53 depending on multiple. At gold = $5,000/oz, per-share value estimated at $31-$62 depending on multiple.

These are best-case numbers assuming 500,000 oz production and stable costs. Realistic expectations may be lower due to the risks laid out above.