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Update shared on18 Sep 2025

Fair value Increased 132%
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RockeTeller's Fair Value
CA$43.00
96.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
23 Sep
CA$1.43
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1Y
21.2%
7D
-8.9%

🔍 Updated Facts / New Info

  • The Golden Summit resource has just been upgraded (July 2025): Indicated Primary Resource is 17.2 million oz Au at 1.24 g/t, a 42% increase in ounces and 15% grade increase from Sept 2024. Inferred Primary Resource is ~11.9 million oz Au at 1.04 g/t. Freegold Ventues Limited
  • Metallurgical recoveries for the sulphide portion (oxidation/R&D methods like BIOX, POX, Albion) exceed 90%. Freegold Ventues Limited+1
  • Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) is planned to begin late 2025. Freegold Ventues Limited
  • Share structure: ~529.16 million shares outstanding. Yahoo Finance+2Finbox+2
  • Market Cap: roughly CAD $800-C$850 million (or USD equivalent around $590M-$650M depending on FX). TipRanks+2MLQ+2

💰 Updated FCF-Based Valuation Scenarios

Assumptions for new valuations:

  • Average AISC (all-in sustaining cost) assumed = US$1,700/oz (same as your earlier assumption).
  • Production target: assume 500,000 oz/year gold (once Golden Summit is fully in production).
  • Shares outstanding: ~529 million.

Valuations under $4,500/oz and $5,000/oz gold.

At $4,500/oz gold

  • Profit per ounce = $4,500 − $1,700 = $2,800/oz
  • Annual FCF = 500,000 oz × $2,800 = $1,400,000,000

Valuation (using FCF multiples):

  • 10× FCF = $14.0B → per share ~$26.45 ( $14.0B ÷ 529M )
  • 15× FCF = $21.0B → per share ~$39.67
  • 20× FCF = $28.0B → per share ~$52.89

At $5,000/oz gold

  • Profit per ounce = $5,000 − $1,700 = $3,300/oz
  • Annual FCF = 500,000 oz × $3,300 = $1,650,000,000

Valuation (FCF multiples):

  • 10× FCF = $16.5B → per share ~$31.20
  • 15× FCF = $24.75B → per share ~$46.80
  • 20× FCF = $33.0B → per share ~$62.40

⚠️ Risks

  • Timeline risk: PFS not started until late 2025. Production is still several years out (permits, construction).
  • Cost risk: AISC of $1,700/oz is aggressive; inflation / energy / input cost volatility could push costs higher.
  • Financing risk: This scale of capex will require large capital, which may come with equity dilution or expensive debt.
  • Resource conversion risk: While indicated resources have increased, there is still a sizeable inferred portion; converting inferred to higher confidence takes time and cost.
  • Commodity price dependency: These valuations assume very high gold price ($4,500–$5,000); if gold lags, downside is large.
  • Metallurgy & recovery risk: Even though recovery tests are positive, scale-up risk remains (oxidation / sulphide processing).
  • Permitting & environmental risk: Operating in Alaska has many regulatory layers; delays or requirements can increase capex/time.
  • Share dilution risk: Additional shares may be issued for financing, which reduces per-share value.

⚡ Catalysts

  • PFS commencement (late 2025) → detailed economic model and capex estimate.
  • Further resource upgrades (especially converting inferred to indicated or measured) via 2025 drilling program (30,000m planned) at Golden Summit. Freegold Ventues Limited
  • Metallurgical test work completion & optimization of processing flow-sheets (sulphide oxidation, etc.) to lock in recoveries.
  • Financing success: private placements or JV partner for development capital.
  • M&A interest if resource, location, infrastructure align and gold markets heat up.
  • Additional drill results in Cleary and Dolphin (higher grade zones) improving grade / tonnage. Investing News Network (INN)+2Freegold Ventues Limited+2
  • Broader gold price rally; gold above $3,000/oz already helps, but moving toward $4,500–$5,000 would materially re-rate.

🎯 Updated Conclusion

With the latest resource growth (Indicated + Inferred ~29 million oz in Golden Summit + significant open pit component) and positive metallurgical recoveries, Freegold is materially de-risking Golden Summit.

At gold = $4,500/oz, per-share value in the range of $26-$53 depending on multiple. At gold = $5,000/oz, per-share value estimated at $31-$62 depending on multiple.

These are best-case numbers assuming 500,000 oz production and stable costs. Realistic expectations may be lower due to the risks laid out above.

Disclaimer

The user RockeTeller has a position in TSX:FVL. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.