Update shared on13 Sep 2025
Fair value Increased 38%Latest info (Q2 2025):
- Shares outstanding: ~141.9M
- Cash: ~$114M
- Debt: ~C$100M
- H1 2025 production: ~2.1M oz silver (annualized ~4.2M oz, ramping toward 7M oz target)
- Cash costs: ~$20–22/oz (AISC likely a bit higher; I’ll model at $20 and $25/oz).
Scenario 1: Silver = $100/oz
At AISC = $25/oz
- Margin per ounce = $100 − $25 = $75
- Annual FCF = 7,000,000 × 75 = $525M
- Valuation at 10× FCF = $5.25B → $36.99/share
- Valuation at 15× FCF = $7.88B → $55.48/share
- Valuation at 20× FCF = $10.50B → $73.96/share
At AISC = $20/oz
- Margin per ounce = $100 − $20 = $80
- Annual FCF = 7,000,000 × 80 = $560M
- Valuation at 10× FCF = $5.60B → $39.47/share
- Valuation at 15× FCF = $8.40B → $59.20/share
- Valuation at 20× FCF = $11.20B → $78.93/share
Scenario 2: Silver = $150/oz
At AISC = $25/oz
- Margin per ounce = $150 − $25 = $125
- Annual FCF = 7,000,000 × 125 = $875M
- Valuation at 10× FCF = $8.75B → $61.68/share
- Valuation at 15× FCF = $13.13B → $92.52/share
- Valuation at 20× FCF = $17.50B → $123.36/share
At AISC = $20/oz
- Margin per ounce = $150 − $20 = $130
- Annual FCF = 7,000,000 × 130 = $910M
- Valuation at 10× FCF = $9.10B → $64.10/share
- Valuation at 15× FCF = $13.65B → $96.15/share
- Valuation at 20× FCF = $18.20B → $128.20/share
👉 So, depending on AISC, Aya Gold & Silver at $100/oz silver could trade between $37–$79/share, and at $150/oz silver between $62–$128/share, under 10–20× FCF multiples.
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