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CHC: Future Earnings Upgrade Will Likely Prove Unsustainable

Rising Capex And Competition Will Squeeze REIT Margins

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CHC
AnalystLowTarget
Not Invested
Published 31 Aug 2025

Update shared on 21 Dec 2025

Fair value Increased 6.15%
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AnalystLowTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
71.5%
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1.2%

Analysts have nudged their price target for Charter Hall Group higher, from A$17.90 to A$19.00, citing improved revenue growth expectations that more than offset a slightly higher discount rate and a marginally softer profit margin outlook.

What's in the News

  • Raised FY26 earnings guidance to 95.0 cents per security at the top end of the new range, implying 16.7% growth on FY25 operating earnings per security of 81.4 cents (company guidance).
  • Declared a dividend of AUD 0.2483 per security for the six months to December 31, 2025, with a record date of December 31, 2025, ex-dividend date of December 30, 2025, and payment date of February 27, 2026 (company announcement).

Valuation Changes

  • Fair Value: increased moderately from A$17.90 to A$19.00 per security.
  • Discount Rate: risen slightly from 6.48% to 6.67%, reflecting a modestly higher risk or return requirement.
  • Revenue Growth: upgraded significantly from 6.26% to about 9.13%, indicating stronger expected top line performance.
  • Net Profit Margin: edged down marginally from 60.57% to about 60.41%, implying a slightly softer profitability outlook.
  • Future P/E: decreased slightly from 20.41x to about 20.16x, suggesting a small compression in the valuation multiple.

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Disclaimer

AnalystLowTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystLowTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystLowTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.