Update shared on 18 Nov 2025
Fair value Increased 0.89%Iluka Resources’ analyst price target has increased modestly to A$7.40 from A$7.33, as analysts note greater confidence in project ramp-up. However, they remain cautious on near-term utilization and growth.
Analyst Commentary
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts highlight increasing confidence in the successful commissioning and ramp-up of projects near Perth, which supports higher valuation multiples.
- The raised price targets reflect positive site visit impressions and suggest that execution risks are being mitigated as projects move toward steady-state operations.
- Expectations of improved project timelines are seen as a catalyst for mid-term growth and are underpinning more constructive long-term outlooks.
- Upward adjustments to target prices indicate analysts are seeing progress that may lead to steadily increasing cash flows as ramp-up continues.
- Some bearish analysts maintain a cautious near-term stance and point to ongoing risks around asset utilization rates and operational efficiency.
- Despite recent improvements, concerns persist about the sustainability and pace of growth amid fluctuating market conditions.
- The move to a Hold rating suggests that while execution risk is declining, valuation may now fully reflect anticipated improvements, which could limit upside potential.
- Short-term visibility into production ramp-up remains a source of uncertainty, especially as new projects transition to commercial output.
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen slightly from A$7.33 to A$7.40, reflecting increased confidence in project outcomes.
- The discount rate has moved up modestly from 7.60% to 8.09%, indicating a higher risk perception or cost of capital in the latest analysis.
- Revenue growth expectations have fallen significantly, declining from 9.97% to 6.34% as analysts moderate their outlook for top-line expansion.
- Net profit margin has improved, rising from 12.47% to 13.42%, suggesting enhanced profitability expectations as projects progress.
- The future P/E ratio has increased from 21.17x to 22.25x, showing that the stock is now valued at a higher multiple of projected earnings.
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