Update shared on 01 Nov 2025
Fair value Increased 3.04%Analysts have modestly raised their price target for Iluka Resources from A$7.11 to A$7.33 per share. They cite improved confidence in project ramp-up, but maintain a cautious outlook on utilization rates.
Analyst Commentary
Recent research updates reveal a nuanced outlook on Iluka Resources, as reflected in both raised price targets and a notable rating change. Analysts have weighed project execution progress against longer-term market and utilization risks, guiding their latest recommendations.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts point to improved visibility in the commissioning and ramp-up of Iluka's upcoming projects as a key driver of increased confidence in the company's execution capabilities.
- The firm’s project pipeline near Perth is expected to deliver incremental growth opportunities and support higher valuation multiples.
- The upward revision in price targets reflects a reassessment of near-term project risks in addition to an expectation for better operational stability as development milestones are achieved.
- Ongoing site visits and updates have provided reassurance regarding management’s ability to effectively deliver on major project deadlines.
Bearish Takeaways
- Bearish analysts emphasize that utilization rates remain an area of concern, and softness may potentially limit near-term earnings upside.
- Cautious voices continue to flag uncertainties around market demand for Iluka’s mineral sands products, which could temper growth projections.
- The recent downgrade in rating, despite a higher target price, signals ongoing apprehension regarding the company’s ability to sustain high performance over an extended period.
- Cost inflation and logistical challenges in project expansion may pressure margins and weigh on investor sentiment in the absence of meaningful volume surprises.
What's in the News
- Iluka Resources announced an ordinary fully paid dividend of AUD 0.020 per security for the six months ended June 30, 2025. The record date is September 3, 2025, and payment will occur on September 25, 2025 (company announcement).
Valuation Changes
- The consensus analyst price target has risen slightly from A$7.11 to A$7.33 per share.
- The discount rate has edged up from 7.49% to 7.60%.
- The revenue growth forecast has fallen significantly from 16.7% to 10.0%.
- The net profit margin estimate has increased from 10.1% to 12.5%.
- The future P/E ratio remains largely unchanged, ticking up marginally from 21.12x to 21.17x.
Disclaimer
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