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Update shared on13 Oct 2025

Fair value Decreased 2.57%
AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value
AU$9.60
32.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
13 Oct
AU$6.50
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1Y
-43.7%
7D
-6.9%

Treasury Wine Estates' analyst consensus price target has been lowered from A$10.75 to A$8.70. Analysts cite ongoing challenges in the U.S. market and continued weakness in Penfolds China as key factors behind the revised outlook.

Analyst Commentary

Analysts reviewing Treasury Wine Estates have provided a balanced set of observations on the company's near-term prospects, reflecting both potential opportunities and ongoing challenges.

Bullish Takeaways

  • Bullish analysts point to the company’s ability to navigate a challenging global environment as a positive sign for long-term execution.
  • Some see Treasury Wine Estates’ premium brand portfolio as a potential driver for future growth, provided market recovery in key regions materializes.
  • Ongoing cost management and operational efficiency efforts could help protect margins, even with softer revenue growth expectations.
  • A sustained stabilization or improvement in the U.S. or China markets could present an upside risk to the current valuation.

Bearish Takeaways

  • Bearish analysts highlight that ongoing weakness in both the U.S. market and Penfolds China continues to weigh on near-term earnings visibility.
  • The outlook for fiscal year 2026 is described as another challenging period, suggesting that growth may remain subdued.
  • There is uncertainty around the timing and catalysts for a meaningful re-rating over the next 12 months, impacting sentiment and valuations.
  • Competitive pressures and demand softness in key export markets could further dampen the company’s growth trajectory.

What's in the News

  • Treasury Wine Estates Limited was removed from the S&P Global 1200 Index (Key Developments).
  • The company was dropped from the S&P International 700 Index (Key Developments).
  • Treasury Wine Estates Limited was removed from the S&P/ASX 50 Index (Key Developments).
  • The Board of Directors authorized a new share buyback plan on August 13, 2025 (Key Developments).
  • The company announced a fully paid ordinary dividend of AUD 0.20 per share for the half-year ended June 30, 2025, payable in October 2025 (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

  • Fair Value Estimate has decreased from A$9.85 to A$9.60, reflecting a modest downgrade in long-term expectations.
  • Discount Rate remains unchanged at 6.48%, indicating no shift in the perceived risk profile.
  • Revenue Growth Forecast has been lowered from 3.62% to 3.29%, pointing to a slightly softer sales outlook.
  • Net Profit Margin projection has edged down from 18.21% to 17.98%, signaling a minor reduction in anticipated profitability.
  • Future Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio has declined slightly from 15.92x to 15.86x, in line with revised earnings assumptions.

Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.