Update shared on04 Sep 2025
Analysts have lowered their outlook on Treasury Wine Estates citing ongoing U.S. market softness, weaker Penfolds sales in China, and continued challenging conditions into FY26, resulting in a maintained but more cautiously framed consensus price target of A$9.85.
Analyst Commentary
- Bearish analysts highlight ongoing softness in the U.S. market impacting revenue expectations.
- Weakness in Penfolds sales within China is contributing to a less optimistic growth outlook.
- The operating environment for FY26 is anticipated to remain challenging.
- Path to a valuation re-rating in the next 12 months is considered unclear due to market uncertainties.
- Price target lowered to reflect increased risks and a more cautious near-term earnings outlook.
What's in the News
- Board authorized a share buyback plan.
- Announced a share repurchase program of up to AUD 200 million, funded from existing liquidity, expiring June 30, 2026.
- Announced an ordinary dividend of AUD 0.20 per share for the six months ended June 30, 2025.
- Settlement of a consolidated shareholder class action approved, with AUD 65 million to be paid from insurance; no admission of liability by the company.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Treasury Wine Estates
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, at A$9.85.
- The Future P/E for Treasury Wine Estates remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 15.90x to 15.92x.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Treasury Wine Estates remained effectively unchanged, at 3.6% per annum.
Disclaimer
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