WDS: Upcoming LNG Agreements And Rate Cuts Will Drive Earnings Momentum

Woodside Energy Group's analyst price target has been revised upward from $27.61 to $27.90 as analysts cite slightly improved earnings projections and a stable sector outlook as supporting factors.

Analyst Commentary

Recent analyst evaluations of Woodside Energy Group have led to an increased price target, reflecting evolving perspectives on the company's fundamentals and external environment. The following summarizes the principal bullish and bearish points noted by analysts in their latest research:

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts highlight the modest upward revisions to earnings forecasts. They point to management's ability to execute amid stable sector dynamics.
• Improvements in the underlying capital structure are viewed positively. Some analysts expect further value creation if Woodside maintains discipline in capital expenditure and portfolio management.
• Expectations of stable to stronger demand for energy commodities support positive sentiment around forward cash flows and potential shareholder returns.
• The company’s operational resilience and history of consistent project delivery are seen as factors that reduce risks for ongoing and upcoming initiatives.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts remain cautious about the sector’s sensitivities to global energy price fluctuations, which could constrain valuation upside despite recent improvements.
• There is ongoing scrutiny of the potential impact of regulatory and geopolitical risks, particularly in key production regions. These factors could delay growth initiatives.
• Some concerns persist about cost inflation and its effect on project margins. Analysts advise close monitoring of management’s execution of capital projects.

What's in the News

• Saudi Aramco is preparing to sign two U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply agreements with Woodside Energy and Commonwealth LNG during the Saudi Crown Prince's upcoming visit to Washington, D.C. (Reuters)
• Woodside Energy Group has revised its full-year 2025 production guidance to a range of 192 to 197 million barrels of oil equivalent, up from the prior forecast of 188 to 195 MMboe (Key Developments)
• The company reported total production of 552 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (Mboe/d) for the third quarter of 2025, compared to 577 Mboe/d a year earlier. Year to date, production stands at 549 Mboe/d versus 520 Mboe/d in the previous year (Key Developments)
• Woodside signed a heads of agreement to supply Turkiye’s BOTAS up to 5.8 billion cubic meters of LNG over nine years, beginning in 2030, primarily sourced from the Louisiana LNG project (Key Developments)

Valuation Changes

• Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen slightly from A$27.61 to A$27.90 following recent forecasts.
• Discount Rate remains unchanged at 6.7%, which reflects a consistent risk assessment by analysts.
• Revenue Growth projection is virtually flat, with the long-term assumption remaining at approximately -0.32%.
• Net Profit Margin estimate has increased marginally, holding steady at 16.72%.
• Future P/E ratio has moved higher from 18.22x to 18.45x, reflecting modestly elevated valuation expectations.