Update shared on 01 Nov 2025
Fair value Increased 0.70%Narrative Update: Woodside Energy Group's Analyst Price Target Raised
Analysts have raised their price target for Woodside Energy Group from $27.19 to $27.38, citing small improvements in fair value and profit margin estimates, even though the revenue growth outlook is slightly lower.
Analyst Commentary
Recent analyst discussions on Woodside Energy Group highlight both opportunities and ongoing risks as the company's targets are adjusted upward.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts note that improved profit margins are strengthening Woodside's valuation, even as revenue growth projections are slightly softer.
- The stability of fair value estimates, even in a fluctuating market, indicates underlying operational resilience.
- Woodside's focus on core energy assets is viewed as a driver for more consistent financial performance in upcoming quarters.
- Analysts point to a supportive macro environment for energy producers, which could further enhance Woodside's growth prospects if current trends continue.
Bearish Takeaways
- Bearish analysts remain cautious about the lowered revenue growth outlook, which could impact future earnings momentum.
- Ongoing volatility in global energy prices poses potential risks for both short-term and medium-term forecasts for the company.
- Execution risk persists in delivering planned efficiency improvements. These improvements are crucial for sustaining the improved profit margins analysts have factored in.
What's in the News
- Revised production guidance for full-year 2025 set at 192 to 197 MMboe, higher than the previous range of 188 to 195 MMboe (Corporate Guidance).
- Reported Q3 2025 production of 552 Mboe/d, down from 577 Mboe/d a year ago, but year-to-date production increased to 549 Mboe/d from 520 Mboe/d in the prior year (Operating Results).
- Signed an LNG Heads of Agreement with Turkiye's BOTAS, committing to supply approximately 5.8 billion cubic meters of LNG over nine years starting in 2030, primarily from the Louisiana LNG project. The final agreement is subject to binding contracts (Client Announcements).
- Announced a fully franked interim dividend of 53 US cents per share for the first half of 2025, with an 80% payout ratio and an annualized yield of 6.9%. Record date is 29 August 2025, payment on 24 September 2025 (Dividend Decreases).
- Hosted Analyst/Investor Day to engage with stakeholders and discuss company outlook (Analyst/Investor Day).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value has risen slightly, increasing from A$27.19 to A$27.38 per share.
- Discount Rate has decreased modestly, moving from 6.99% to approximately 6.93%.
- Revenue Growth outlook has fallen significantly, shifting from -0.04% to -0.73% year over year.
- Net Profit Margin has improved, rising from 16.27% to 16.91%.
- Future P/E ratio is largely unchanged, edging down from 18.27x to 18.24x.
Disclaimer
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