Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc.

NasdaqGS:NBIX Stock Report

Market Cap: US$12.1b

Neurocrine Biosciences Valuation

Is NBIX undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NBIX when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NBIX ($123.29) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($427.26)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NBIX is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NBIX?

Key metric: As NBIX is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for NBIX. This is calculated by dividing NBIX's market cap by their current earnings.
What is NBIX's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio32.3x
EarningsUS$385.90m
Market CapUS$12.06b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NBIX's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for NBIX vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average39.9x
BMRN BioMarin Pharmaceutical
37x27.3%US$11.8b
SRPT Sarepta Therapeutics
86.9x42.6%US$10.2b
EXEL Exelixis
21.2x15.6%US$9.8b
UTHR United Therapeutics
14.6x8.1%US$16.1b
NBIX Neurocrine Biosciences
32.3x29.6%US$12.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NBIX is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (32.3x) compared to the peer average (39.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NBIX's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Biotechs Industry?

11 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ROIV Roivant Sciences
1.8x-46.3%US$8.23b
AGIO Agios Pharmaceuticals
4.6x-56.7%US$3.10b
INBX Inhibrx Biosciences
0.1xn/aUS$206.86m
CTMX CytomX Therapeutics
4.9x-35.8%US$69.86m
NBIX 32.3xIndustry Avg. 16.8xNo. of Companies11PE020406080100+
11 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NBIX is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (32.3x) compared to the US Biotechs industry average (16.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NBIX's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NBIX PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio32.3x
Fair PE Ratio34.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: NBIX is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (32.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (34.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst NBIX forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$123.29
US$163.46
+32.6%
10.3%US$192.00US$121.00n/a26
Nov ’25US$122.21
US$162.86
+33.3%
10.5%US$192.00US$121.00n/a26
Oct ’25US$114.15
US$168.72
+47.8%
10.5%US$204.00US$128.00n/a25
Sep ’25US$127.06
US$169.52
+33.4%
10.5%US$204.00US$128.00n/a25
Aug ’25US$153.15
US$167.15
+9.1%
10.3%US$216.00US$131.00n/a26
Jul ’25US$140.11
US$160.53
+14.6%
11.4%US$216.00US$111.00n/a27
Jun ’25US$135.41
US$160.38
+18.4%
11.7%US$216.00US$111.00n/a26
May ’25US$143.03
US$155.09
+8.4%
10.2%US$200.00US$111.00n/a28
Apr ’25US$141.38
US$151.79
+7.4%
10.9%US$200.00US$106.00n/a28
Mar ’25US$131.30
US$149.68
+14.0%
8.7%US$170.00US$106.00n/a28
Feb ’25US$142.45
US$145.70
+2.3%
11.0%US$170.00US$100.00n/a27
Jan ’25US$131.76
US$137.73
+4.5%
10.8%US$170.00US$100.00n/a27
Dec ’24US$117.12
US$135.27
+15.5%
12.6%US$170.00US$100.00n/a25
Nov ’24US$111.54
US$136.64
+22.5%
11.7%US$170.00US$100.00US$122.2125
Oct ’24US$112.50
US$129.76
+15.3%
11.5%US$160.00US$95.00US$114.1524
Sep ’24US$110.63
US$126.21
+14.1%
11.2%US$154.00US$95.00US$127.0624
Aug ’24US$103.44
US$125.17
+21.0%
10.7%US$150.00US$95.00US$153.1524
Jul ’24US$94.30
US$124.16
+31.7%
10.8%US$150.00US$91.00US$140.1126
Jun ’24US$91.19
US$124.85
+36.9%
11.3%US$150.00US$91.00US$135.4126
May ’24US$104.02
US$126.53
+21.6%
11.1%US$150.00US$91.00US$143.0325
Apr ’24US$101.22
US$127.34
+25.8%
10.9%US$150.00US$93.00US$141.3825
Mar ’24US$101.25
US$127.02
+25.5%
10.9%US$150.00US$93.00US$131.3025
Feb ’24US$110.22
US$129.25
+17.3%
11.0%US$165.37US$101.00US$142.4525
Jan ’24US$119.44
US$128.97
+8.0%
11.0%US$162.13US$101.00US$131.7625
Dec ’23US$126.31
US$128.97
+2.1%
11.0%US$162.13US$101.00US$117.1225
Nov ’23US$119.36
US$126.57
+6.0%
13.6%US$162.13US$78.00US$111.5425

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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