News Flash: Analysts Just Made A Huge Upgrade To Their NobleOak Life Limited (ASX:NOL) Forecasts

NobleOak Life Limited (ASX:NOL) shareholders will have a reason to smile today, with the analysts making substantial upgrades to this year's statutory forecasts. The revenue forecast for this year has experienced a facelift, with analysts now much more optimistic on its sales pipeline. The market may be pricing in some blue sky too, with the share price gaining 15% to AU$1.94 in the last 7 days. We'll be curious to see if these new estimates convince the market to lift the stock price higher still.

After this upgrade, NobleOak Life's three analysts are now forecasting revenues of AU$99m in 2023. This would be a meaningful 18% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Before the latest update, the analysts were foreseeing AU$75m of revenue in 2023. The consensus has definitely become more optimistic, showing a considerable lift to revenue forecasts.

Our analysis indicates that NOL is potentially overvalued!

There was no particular change to the consensus price target of AU$2.38, with NobleOak Life's latest outlook seemingly not enough to result in a change of valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values NobleOak Life at AU$2.85 per share, while the most bearish prices it at AU$1.59. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await NobleOak Life shareholders.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that NobleOak Life's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 18% annualised growth rate until the end of 2023 being well below the historical 24% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 1.8% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that NobleOak Life is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The highlight for us was that analysts increased their revenue forecasts for NobleOak Life this year. The analysts also expect revenues to grow faster than the wider market. Given that analysts appear to be expecting substantial improvement in the sales pipeline, now could be the right time to take another look at NobleOak Life.

Looking to learn more? We have analyst estimates for NobleOak Life going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.