AnalystConsensusTarget updated the narrative for VST

Vistra's analyst fair value price target has been modestly raised from $226.45 to $227.03. Analysts point to factors including improving profit margins, a positive outlook for thermal IPPs due to higher power prices, and robust demand growth driven by data centers and utility asset upgrades.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research offers a dynamic view of Vistra's prospects, with both bullish and bearish analysts weighing in on shifting sector fundamentals, earnings potential, and the sustainability of recent share price gains.

• Bullish analysts highlight elevated power and capacity prices, which are driving increased cash flow and supporting robust profit margin expansion.
• Upgrades and price target raises are attributed to surging demand from data centers and large-scale utility asset upgrades. This positions Vistra as a leading beneficiary of the current "once in a generation opportunity" in the sector.
• Securing long-term power purchase agreements and new generation projects is viewed as a catalyst for consistent earnings growth. Some analysts project annualized earnings increases in the high single digits for the foreseeable future.
• Favorable regulatory environments and constructive market conditions are creating opportunities for Vistra to expand its asset base and capitalize on industry tailwinds.

• Bearish analysts are becoming more cautious following the stock’s significant 160% rally over the past year. They suggest that current valuations already reflect high expectations for new nuclear contracts and sustained strong pricing.
• Increasing political and regulatory risks, particularly in Texas and certain regional power markets, pose potential headwinds to both execution and long-term value creation.
• Uncertainty remains about the pace and probability of further power purchase agreement announcements, as well as the sustainability of current demand trends over multiple years.
• The valuation gap relative to key peers is narrowing. Some analysts have downgraded the stock over concerns that recent outperformance may prove difficult to maintain without new, material catalysts.

What's in the News

• Vistra Corp. board declares a quarterly dividend of $0.2270 per share, representing a 2% increase from the prior quarter. The estimated aggregate payment to shareholders is $75 million, payable December 31, 2025. (Key Developments)
• The company entered a 20-year power purchase agreement to supply 1,200 MW of carbon-free power from Comanche Peak Nuclear Power Plant to a large investment-grade customer. The agreement anticipates full capacity by 2032 and incremental Adjusted Free Cash Flow before Growth accretion of 8-10%. (Key Developments)
• Construction of two new advanced natural gas power units at the Permian Basin Power Plant has been approved, which will boost site capacity from 325 MW to 1,185 MW. Upgrades are also planned across Texas gas plants, and major solar and repowering projects are near completion. (Key Developments)
• The company reported an unaudited $68 million impairment of long-lived assets for the quarter ended June 30, 2025. (Key Developments)
• Between April and August 2025, 2.13 million shares were repurchased, completing 40% of the previously announced buyback program for a total of $5.38 billion. (Key Developments)

Valuation Changes

• The consensus analyst price target has risen slightly, moving from $226.45 to $227.03 per share.
• The discount rate has fallen modestly, decreasing from 7.69% to 7.66%.
• Revenue growth expectations have edged down, from 8.87% to 8.39%.
• Net profit margin has improved, increasing from 14.63% to 15.21%.
• The future P/E ratio has decreased, moving from 27.04x to 26.39x.