Update shared on18 Sep 2025
Fair value Increased 1.53%Upward revisions to Vistra's price target reflect bullish sentiment driven by record PJM capacity prices, growing power demand from AI adoption and data centers, higher expected EBITDA, and regulatory tailwinds, resulting in a new analyst consensus fair value of $221.57.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts cite record PJM capacity market prices for the 2026-2027 delivery year and a favorable shift in power market dynamics, leading to valuation upside.
- Increased confidence in long-term nuclear power purchase agreements at Vistra’s Comanche Peak plant, especially amid anticipation for new hyperscale contracts.
- The acceleration of AI adoption is transforming power demand, positioning Vistra to benefit significantly from the early-stage “power revolution.”
- Positive revisions to EBITDA estimates are driven by stronger-than-expected commodity and capacity pricing, as well as robust projected free cash flow.
- Favorable regulatory developments (e.g., Texas SB6) and recent federal administration policy tailwinds have led to upward adjustments in EBITDA multiples and higher valuation premiums, particularly for natural gas assets.
What's in the News
- Vistra reported a $68 million impairment of long-lived assets for the quarter ended June 30, 2025.
- The company repurchased 2,129,005 shares for $304 million during Q2, completing nearly 40% of its buyback program launched in 2021.
- Vistra's board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.2260 per share, a roughly 3% increase from the previous quarter, with an aggregate payment of approximately $75 million.
- Vistra received Nuclear Regulatory Commission approval to extend the Perry Nuclear Power Plant’s operation license by 20 years, meaning all six of its nuclear reactors are now licensed for a full 60 years of operation.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Vistra
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from $218.24 to $221.57.
- The Future P/E for Vistra has risen slightly from 26.45x to 27.06x.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Vistra remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 9.8% per annum to 9.7% per annum.
Disclaimer
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