Update shared on24 Sep 2025
Fair value Increased 2.25%Analysts have raised NRG Energy’s price target to $176.95, citing attractive relative valuation, strong operational execution, and expected tailwinds from rising AI-driven power demand and hyperscaler contracts.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts highlight NRG’s attractive valuation relative to peers, noting its portfolio offers significant optionality despite not having the highest-quality assets or business mix.
- A track record of strong execution and operational delivery is cited as a reason for increased price targets.
- The acceleration of AI adoption is driving a “Power revolution,” positioning NRG and similar companies to benefit from emerging demand linked to data centers and hyperscaler contracts.
- Recent and potential deals, particularly hyperscaler contracts and interconnection sales to smaller datacenters, are viewed as value drivers for NRG.
- Model updates following Q2 results and a constructive sector outlook prompt higher price targets, with analysts favoring NRG for its risk-adjusted return profile within independent power producers.
What's in the News
- NRG Energy has entered a strategic agreement with LandBridge Company for a potential 1,100 MW natural gas power plant in Reeves County, Texas, targeting data center customers, with permitting underway and in-service possible by year-end 2029.
- The company raised its 2025 net income guidance to $1,080 million–$1,200 million from the prior range of $1,025 million–$1,225 million.
- Recently completed share repurchases total 32.79 million shares (15.33% of shares outstanding) for $2.47 billion under the buyback program announced in late 2022.
- NRG Energy was dropped from several Russell indices, including the Russell 1000 Value, 2500 Value, 2500 Growth, 3000 Value, Midcap Value, and related benchmarks.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for NRG Energy
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen slightly from $173.06 to $176.95.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for NRG Energy has significantly risen from 5.5% per annum to 6.1% per annum.
- The Net Profit Margin for NRG Energy has risen from 4.68% to 5.10%.
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.