NFG: Future Production Expansion Will Drive Attractive Share Price Upside

Analysts have raised their price target on National Fuel Gas to approximately 101.33 dollars from 101 dollars, reflecting modestly updated assumptions around long term growth, profitability, and valuation multiples.

What's in the News

• Entered into a common stock subscription agreement with accredited investors to issue 4,402,513 shares at 79.50 dollars per share, raising about 350 million dollars in gross proceeds, with closing expected on December 17, 2025, subject to customary conditions (Key Developments)
• Shares in the private offering are being issued without registration under the Securities Act, relying on Section 4(a)(2), Rule 506 of Regulation D, and similar state law exemptions (Key Developments)
• Updated buyback tranche disclosure shows no shares repurchased from July 1, 2025 to September 30, 2025, while the company has cumulatively repurchased 1,974,979 shares, or 2.16 percent, for 118.29 million dollars under the March 11, 2024 authorization (Key Developments)
• Reiterated 2026 production guidance, expecting total production of 440 to 455 Bcf, indicating confidence in medium term operating plans (Key Developments)

Valuation Changes

• The fair value estimate increased slightly to approximately 101.33 dollars from 101 dollars, reflecting modestly revised long-term assumptions.
• The discount rate was effectively unchanged, edging down from about 6.96 percent to 6.96 percent, indicating a stable risk assessment.
• The revenue growth expectation declined slightly from roughly 13.40 percent to 13.32 percent, suggesting a marginally more conservative top-line outlook.
• The net profit margin outlook fell slightly from about 26.65 percent to 26.57 percent, pointing to a small reduction in anticipated profitability.
• The future P/E multiple rose slightly from approximately 12.43 times to 12.53 times, implying a modestly higher valuation multiple on forward earnings.