Update shared on21 Oct 2025
Fair value Increased 1.70%Analysts have raised National Fuel Gas's price target by $1.67 to $99.67. They cite improved capital efficiencies, positive cash flow expectations, and the company's continued positioning as a high-quality, lower-risk sector name.
Analyst Commentary
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts are encouraged by improved capital efficiencies, which are expected to support enhanced operational execution and cost management.
- Positive cash flow implications from recent legislative developments, such as the One Big Beautiful Bill, are seen as supportive of long-term growth and valuation.
- The company's consistent positioning as a high-quality, lower-risk name adds to its attractiveness within the sector for investors seeking stability.
- Potential further developments related to data centers are viewed as a catalyst for future growth over the coming quarters.
- Recent quarterly earnings among U.S. Natural Gas stocks have produced mixed results, highlighting ongoing market and operational uncertainties.
- Bearish analysts remain cautious about sector-wide volatility, which could influence National Fuel Gas’s ability to consistently deliver on financial expectations.
- The near-term impact of data center developments remains uncertain, adding a layer of unpredictability to projected growth.
What's in the News
- National Fuel Gas narrowed its 2025 earnings guidance to a range of $6.80 to $6.95 per share, reflecting a reduced NYMEX forecast for the fourth quarter along with positive momentum in other areas (Key Developments).
- The company issued new earnings guidance for 2026, projecting $8 to $8.50 per share. This represents a 20% increase over fiscal 2025 at the midpoint (Key Developments).
- National Fuel Gas updated production guidance, expecting 420 to 425 Bcf for 2025 and increasing to 440 to 455 Bcf in 2026. This is a 6% rise at the midpoint (Key Developments).
- Between April 1 and June 30, 2025, the company repurchased 53,952 shares for $3.98 million, completing the buyback of nearly 2% of outstanding shares under its ongoing program (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value has risen slightly from $98 to approximately $99.67, reflecting a modest upward adjustment.
- Discount Rate remains unchanged at 6.776%, indicating stable risk and return assumptions.
- Revenue Growth estimates have edged down from 14.95% to roughly 14.90%.
- Net Profit Margin has improved incrementally, increasing from 34.28% to 34.98%.
- Future P/E ratio is marginally lower, moving from 9.34x to 9.32x, signaling a slightly more attractive valuation multiple.
Disclaimer
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