EVRG: Upcoming Regulatory Outcomes Will Drive Renewed Earnings Momentum Through 2029

Analysts have modestly lifted their consolidated price target on Evergy by a mid single digit dollar amount to reflect improving profit margin expectations, successful regulatory outcomes, and solid earnings growth prospects. This comes even as slightly lower long term revenue growth assumptions and a marginally reduced fair value temper the overall upside.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts highlight that raised price targets into the high 70s and mid 80s reflect growing confidence that Evergy can sustain above sector average earnings growth through 2029.
• Upward revisions are being underpinned by successful regulatory outcomes and large customer progress, which reduce execution risk on planned capital programs and support long term rate base expansion.
• Expectations for a refreshed business plan in the fourth quarter, alongside consensus estimates that are viewed as having upward bias, provide a potential catalyst for further multiple expansion.
• The broader view that utilities remain materially undervalued, while structural tailwinds support the group, is seen as a favorable backdrop for Evergy to close part of its valuation discount.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts maintain more neutral stances, arguing that the current share price already reflects much of the near term regulatory and margin improvement, which may limit upside relative to revised targets.
• Some caution that near term results could be relatively quiet, with limited incremental data on load growth, which may delay conviction in higher long term revenue and earnings trajectories.
• Equal weight views suggest that, while Evergy benefits from sector wide tailwinds, its growth profile is not yet clearly differentiated enough to justify a premium valuation to peers.
• There remains concern that any disappointment in the upcoming business plan update, or slower than modeled EPS growth from 2025 to 2029, could pressure the recently raised fair value estimates.

What's in the News

• The Board of Directors declared a common stock dividend of $0.6950 per share, payable December 19, 2025 to shareholders of record on November 21, 2025 (company announcement).
• The company filed a follow-on equity offering of approximately $223.25 million, representing 1,700,000 shares of common stock at a price of $72.50 (regulatory filing).
• TerraPower and the Kansas Department of Commerce signed an MOU to evaluate siting a Natrium advanced nuclear reactor and energy storage system within Evergy's Kansas service territory, including detailed site and licensing feasibility assessments (company and government announcement).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value has edged down slightly from $84.32 to $83.59 per share, implying a modestly lower intrinsic valuation.
• Discount Rate is effectively unchanged, ticking down only fractionally from 6.956 percent to 6.956 percent, signaling a stable risk and return assumption.
• Revenue Growth expectations have fallen modestly from 5.88 percent to about 5.67 percent annually, reflecting slightly more conservative long term top line assumptions.
• Profit Margin forecasts have risen slightly from 17.13 percent to about 17.30 percent, indicating a small improvement in anticipated profitability.
• Future P/E has eased marginally from 19.84x to about 19.60x, pointing to a slightly lower multiple being applied to forward earnings.