Update shared on30 Aug 2025
Fair value Decreased 16%Matson’s consensus price target has been revised down to $115 from $137.50 as analysts anticipate softer freight rates and volumes to weigh on near-term results, offsetting better-than-expected Q2 performance and prompting a more cautious outlook.
Analyst Commentary
- Freight rates and volumes have softened further in July, pressuring near-term revenue outlook.
- Q2 results are still expected to exceed prior expectations, indicating resilience in the short term.
- Softened outlook for Q3 due to continued weakness in demand.
- Earnings estimates have been reduced in anticipation of lower performance in coming quarters.
- Caution warranted ahead of the next earnings release given signs of moderating business momentum.
What's in the News
- Matson repurchased 860,000 shares for $92.73 million, completing 33.15% of its buyback program announced in June 2021.
- The company raised 2025 earnings guidance, expecting consolidated and Ocean Transportation operating income above prior guidance but moderately below 2024; Logistics income to be comparable to the previous year.
- For Q3 2025, Matson expects Ocean Transportation income to decline significantly year-over-year due to lower China freight rates and muted peak season; Logistics income to remain steady.
- The Board increased the quarterly dividend by 5.9% to $0.36 per share.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Matson
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has significantly fallen from $137.50 to $115.00.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Matson has significantly risen from -1.1% per annum to -0.3% per annum.
- The Future P/E for Matson has significantly fallen from 16.36x to 13.27x.
Disclaimer
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